Tuesday, July 5, 2016

Drought Looms Ahead

Where is the rain? Since the 1st of May, we are 43% of our normal rainfall!
Rain Deficit Stats Since May 1st

Are we in a drought yet? Simple answer is no. However, that could be changing soon. We currently "Abnormally Dry" across much of the area which is the precursor to drought conditions.

Abnormally Dry Conditions
 
It's expected in the absence of any significant rainfall soon, we will see drought conditions develop this summer. Our last drought hit quickly in the summer in 2012. Since 2000 the frequency of drought in Ohio is about every 3 to 5 years. 
 
Drought in Ohio Since 2000
 
The transition from our strong El Nino earlier this year to a La Nina this fall and winter is expected. Historically, summers during this "transition" were 2010, 2005, 1998, 1995, 1983 & 1970. The summer months of June, July and August of these years had significant temperature anomalies for very warm, above normal temperatures.

 
Historical El Nino to La Nina Summers

 Precipitation during these hot summers is typically below average. We are well on our way to a dry summer, and quite possibly a summer that sees the return of a drought for the first time since the summer of 2012.
 
~Meteorologist Chris Vickers
 
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