Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Tuesday's Severe Weather Potential

The outlook for severe weather today is officially considered a SLIGHT RISK in accordance the the Storm Prediciton Center out of Norman, OK.  Here is the latest analysis as of 8 AM and my thoughts on the potential for strong storms this afternoon. 
500 mb Chart w/ surface radar composite

This latest 500 mb chart still clearly shows a distinct mid level shortwave that may act as a trigger for afternoon storms.  This "trigger" in addition to some increased lower level shear due to the passage of a warm front will be the factors that will make a few strong/severe storms a possibility this afternoon.  However, the other necessary ingredient is instability.  There is currently great question on  the amount of instability or "energy" for storms this afternoon.  Morning rain and lingering clouds will significantly limit the amount of energy that will develop today.  In simple terms, little if any sun today means no energy for storms. 

If storms are able to materialize it would be due to at least some sun, so look to see if that happens.  The main time frame would be into the late afternoon and early evening hours with the main threat clearly to be strong or damaging winds with multi cell storm clusters possible.  
Storm Threat Today -- Wind Damage the Greatest
Stay tuned the StormTrack weather team will have you covered if storms do develop! 

Monday, May 27, 2013

Dry May, but Dry Spring??

May, should be the month where those April flowers should be in full bloom and the yards should be a nice dark green color.

Currently, Toledo is sitting at 0.63" inches of precipitaion for the month of May.  This stat has been lining up to be one of the driest month of May on record.

5 Driest Mays' since 1871

If it didn't rain anymore for the rest of the month, 2013 would be the second driest May!!  As you can see this is a statistic that doesn't happen very often.  This hasn't happened in almost 80 years!

Precipitation this Spring

Don't be alarmed, just because there has been a lack of rain this month, doesn't mean we are in a drought.  April was a pretty wet month, so that has kept us out of drought territory and near climatological normal for this time of year.  The wet weather for your Memorial Day and Tuesday will bring those rain measurements up a little bit.  However, the warm-up during the week may quickly dry things out again.  Fortunately, rain will be back in the forecast for later in the week!!

-- Alex Vorst  WTOL Weather Intern