Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Tuesday's Severe Weather Potential

The outlook for severe weather today is officially considered a SLIGHT RISK in accordance the the Storm Prediciton Center out of Norman, OK.  Here is the latest analysis as of 8 AM and my thoughts on the potential for strong storms this afternoon. 
500 mb Chart w/ surface radar composite

This latest 500 mb chart still clearly shows a distinct mid level shortwave that may act as a trigger for afternoon storms.  This "trigger" in addition to some increased lower level shear due to the passage of a warm front will be the factors that will make a few strong/severe storms a possibility this afternoon.  However, the other necessary ingredient is instability.  There is currently great question on  the amount of instability or "energy" for storms this afternoon.  Morning rain and lingering clouds will significantly limit the amount of energy that will develop today.  In simple terms, little if any sun today means no energy for storms. 

If storms are able to materialize it would be due to at least some sun, so look to see if that happens.  The main time frame would be into the late afternoon and early evening hours with the main threat clearly to be strong or damaging winds with multi cell storm clusters possible.  
Storm Threat Today -- Wind Damage the Greatest
Stay tuned the StormTrack weather team will have you covered if storms do develop!