Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Tropical Storm Emily

Tropical Storm Emily has entered into the Caribbean and is expected to bring topical storm force winds and very heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic tonight and into tomorrow morning.  Currently winds are at 50 mph.

Here is the projected path of Emily:

There still is uncertainty on the strength and track of Emily.  Model consensus keeps her at tropical storm strength with a path just off the coast of Florida.   A modest amount of shear around 15 kts continues to hamper a more rapid intensification of Emily.  This tropical system will gradually turn more northwesterly under the influence of a subtropical ridge.  For the complete details check out the official National Hurricane Center discussion here.  Check out the forecast track eight computer models commonly used in forecasting hurricanes.  Notice the "uncertainty" and the path of greatest "agreement" between the model runs.