Thursday, August 25, 2011

Hurricane Irene Update-9 AM Thursday

The latest analysis indicates Hurricane Irene could have devastating impacts from the Carolina's through New England this weekend.  Model consensus show initial landfall around the Outer Banks (pictured below) late Saturday evening.



[caption id="attachment_2172" align="alignnone" width="300" caption="GFDL-Landfall of Irene Sat. PM (North Carolina)"][/caption]


The GFDL model depicted above actually is showing the landfall point west of other model consensus.  I expect, and agree with the NHC forecast path which is expected to be west of this point over the eastern tip of the Outer Banks. 

Irene then is expected to emerge into the Chesapeake Bay area and head northward with a second landfall possible over Long Island, New York.

 


[caption id="attachment_2170" align="alignnone" width="300" caption="NAM Sea Level Pressure and Precipitation forecast for Sunday morning 8 AM"][/caption]

This could be one of the most powerful hurricanes in decades to impact Long Island, New York City and New England and could have devastating and deadly consequences brought on by coastal flooding, inland flooding, and intense winds.  Stay tuned for updates!