Sunday, February 21, 2016

ALERT: Winter Storm Potential

A potential Winter Storm develops Wednesday and into Thursday across the area.  This storm is likely to begin as rain on Wednesday and change to snow Wednesday night and into Thursday.  We have back-to-back ALERT days for this potential storm.  Several inches of snow may be possible, which could result in the biggest winter storm of what has otherwise been a lackluster winter season. 

Alert Day Details
 Snow and wind on Thursday would be the greatest impact.  Sit tight for now, the energy for this storm is still over 2,800 miles away in the Pacific ocean and has yet to actually develop. Impacts won't be felt until mid week at the earliest. 



Additional Technical Weather Information

It appears this storm on Wednesday will be mainly rain.  All "Critical Thickness" indicators (how warm the atmosphere above is) measure the atmosphere as too warm to produce snow.  Snow may not happen until well after dark Wednesday.  Changes to modeled storm track over the next few days may modify this somewhat.
Critical Thickness

 Here is a peek at the projected storm from the 06Z GFS.  Trends have favored a shift west in the track of the storm which increases our chance rain will happen before changing to snow on Thursday.
MSLP and QPF


 Many more details to come.  Best chance of accumulating snow still looks to be Thursday. Only action now is to be aware and alert of a possible winter storm.



~Meteorologist Chris Vickers