Sunday, December 21, 2014

Imminent Christmas Weather

Confidence is growing as we approach the holidays this week. With only slight changes from day-to-day now as the imminent weather moves in, you can start to plan around the worst of it.

Monday will be mild, mainly dry, mostly cloudy and otherwise unremarkable. 

We can start to map out the timeline of this event beginning Monday evening:

After midnight, rain showers arrive. Scattered at first, leading into Tuesday morning. 

Monday night-Tuesday morning (12/22-12/23)
Tuesday will be a mild day with highs near 50°. Showers will track through the area all day long, moderate to heavy at times.

Up to 1/2" of rainfall is possible both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday morning (12/24)
Showers continue to fuel into the area all day Wednesday. Gulf coast moisture will be trapped over Ohio in a line stretching from Mississippi to Upstate New York.

Travel during the holidays will feel the impacts the most.
According to USA Today, a record number of Americans will be on the road this holiday season. AAA expects 98.6 million people to travel 50 miles or more this Christmas.

Into Wednesday evening, incredibly strong winds will be added to the mix.
Up until that point, however, we're only looking at rain showers. Due to warm air advection, snow is not a possibility until after midnight Wednesday into Thursday-- as Santa is making his deliveries. 

Warmth Monday-Wednesday keeps snow showers at bay until Christmas Day
Winds remain strong into the day Thursday. Some damage is possible-- better bring in those loose decorations now! Expect strongest gusts to be near 40mph at times. 

Rain showers will eventually filter in some snow flakes overnight Wednesday in Thursday with a wintry mix overnight creating slick roadways Thursday morning.

Thursday, snow showers will fall into a wet & newly frozen environment. Slick roadways are not only possible, but likely.

Early morning snow showers possible-- minimal accumualtions
With gusty winds and falling flakes, blowing and drifting snow is likely. Snowfall amounts will be minimal.

In summation:
  1. Monday:                 Dry, cloudy, mild
  2. Monday night:       Mild, Light rain showers arrive
  3. Tuesday:                 Moderate to heavy rain, Warm
  4. Tuesday Night:      Rain showers, Mild
  5. Wednesday:           Moderate to heavy rain, Warm, Gusty Winds
  6. Wednesday night: WINDY, Wintry Mix
  7. Thursday:                WINDY, some snow, Cold