Sunday, February 24, 2013

Another Winter Storm


A tricky weather scenario is shaping up for Tuesday with rain, snow and ice pellets all possible. Before then Monday will be rather quiet and pleasant with partly sunny skies.

But a lot of OUR attention is on Tuesday afternoon as heavy rain, yes rain, is expected to move into northern Ohio. This rain will switch over to snow at times, mixing with sleet as well.

Hour by Hour Forecast for Tuesday late morning. Mainy rain in Ohio, some ice pellets.
This is why the forecast is so tricky. The track of the storm will not change. We have a very good idea of exactly where it will travel right up the Ohio River. No wiggles or wobbles will change snowfall amounts. Instead -- how HARD it rains -- will likely determine how much snow you see. Confused? Keep reading...

Think of it terms of you on a hot summer day.  You sweat. Right? That is how your body cools you off. The same will be happening Tuesday in the atmosphere. The amount of evaporation, due to all the rain, could cool down the air 1-2 degrees. That is JUST enough to switch from rain to heavy snow. Our Hour-by-Hour forecast shows that happening.
Hour by Hour forecast mid-afternoon
Having heavy rain switch to heavy snow in this manner doesn't happen often. That is why we are hesitant to put a lot of heavy snow in our forecast. Just yet. As the event draws closer (This post is Sunday evening, almost 48 hours before the storm) we will have a better idea of if this will actually happen.

ICE POTENTIAL: It appears a low chance right now we will see a lot of ice accumulation simply becuase of the ground/air temperature. Sure ice pellets may be falling and even accumulate. But for ice to cause major issues like we had last Friday, we need temperatures to be below 30. While snow/rain/ice pellets are falling Tuesday we are expecting temperatures to be 32-36 degrees.

Either way for most locations it switches to all snow by Tuesday evening with several inches of accumulation possible.

Light snow will continue Wednesday and Thursday. Stay patient for this VERY complicated forecast. We want to be accurate first and foremost with any accumulation forecast we make for you.