Saturday, March 5, 2016

Behind The Scenes: The First Alert Forecast

The upcoming spring fever is a guarantee with highs in the 60s, and very likely soaring toward 70° on Tuesday.  We were the first to Alert you of this last Monday, February 29th that this major spring shift would happen in the 10-12 day outlook.

Next Week Spring Warm Up
Some have asked why our (warmer) forecast differs from others?  The answer is complex, but it involves critical thinking and experience to interpret weather patterns beyond computer driven model data.  Some sources rely more on just what models say, we on the other hand use this data and take a deeper and more analytical approach to developing a more accurate forecast for our local area.    
The critical thinking behind a weather forecast


Weather equations, which are the base of computer modeling, are extremely complex.  Here is an example. Take a look, wouldn't you agree?
Quasi-Geostrophic Equation


Any forecast that is based on sound science, reason and logic is a good weather forecast.  Even with that said, all forecast are not always correct.  Despite that, accuracy is greatly improving and evolving and will continue to do so.  We trust our accurate forecasts and so should you.  Trust is something earned and not given.  Keep tabs on the next few days and enjoy, you will feel the major spring warm up!