Sunday, November 15, 2015

You Won't Believe This: 2014-2015 Seasonal Difference

It should go without saying; the late fall/early winter season of 2015 has been easy on us NW Ohioans. Sure, some rain. Strong winds, yeah. But snow? Ice? Bitter cold? Nope, nope, nope. 

Hanging on to False Hope

Let's take a walk down memory lane. November 2014 started off cooler than average, but bounced back enough to trick us into preserving hope that all was not lost. 

The first week and half went smoothly with highs in the 40s and 50s and lows near the freezing point a handful of times. Nothing out of the ordinary for such a transitional month as November. Before experiencing a change that would define our entire winter season, we hit the warmest high of the month on November 11th. A high of 64° was certainly a treat, but nothing spectacular. 

NOVEMBER 2014
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

 1  40  27  34 -13  31   0    T    T    0 12.8 24 360   M    M   4 1      32  10
 2  47  22  35 -12  30   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.6 13 250   M    M   0 8      16 250
 3  60  31  46   0  19   0 0.00  0.0    0 10.4 25 240   M    M   7        31 250
 4  55  44  50   4  15   0 0.08  0.0    0 12.7 26 260   M    M   8 1      33 260
 5  58  39  49   3  16   0 0.00  0.0    0  9.2 18 240   M    M   0        22 250
 6  48  39  44  -1  21   0 0.21  0.0    0  8.0 23 350   M    M   8 1      31 340
 7  46  33  40  -5  25   0 0.00  0.0    0  9.0 21 340   M    M   5        31 340
 8  45  36  41  -4  24   0    T  0.0    0 10.4 22 280   M    M   9        29 280
 9  45  33  39  -5  26   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.8 18 230   M    M   6        24 210
10  60  42  51   7  14   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.9 21 190   M    M   2        25 180
11  64  38  51   7  14   0 0.04  0.0    0 13.0 25 240   M    M   4 1      32 240
12  37  30  34  -9  31   0 0.01  0.0    0 10.9 22 280   M    M   9        31 290
13  35  23  29 -14  36   0    T    T    0 10.6 20 260   M    M   8 18     25 310
14  33  19  26 -16  39   0    T    T    0  8.8 16 260   M    M   6 1      22 280
15  32  17  25 -17  40   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.5 16 250   M    M   3 18     21 250

Mid-November [exactly this time last year] brought major change. On the 16th of the month, 1.7" of snowfall was recorded, plus an additional 0.4" the following day; per the forecast from your First Alert Weather team:

NOVEMBER 2014
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================
16  33  27  30 -11  35   0 0.17  1.7    0  3.5 12 240   M    M  10 18     15 230
17  30  13  22 -19  43   0 0.01  0.4    1 13.4 28 260   M    M   8 18     36 260



Since Toledo's first snowfall typical arrives in November, this is no shock to the area, but we followed up this minor snow event with highs in the TEENS, 20s and 30s and lows in the single digits. 

NOVEMBER 2014
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================
18  18   9  14 -26  51   0    T    T    1 19.6 33 260   M    M   3        43 260
19  33  12  23 -17  42   0 0.05  0.5    1 14.5 30 260   M    M   8 128    37 270
20  27  16  22 -18  43   0 0.00  0.0    2 15.9 30 250   M    M   7 8      37 250
21  26  15  21 -18  44   0    T    T    2  5.0 12 180   M    M   4        16 250
22  51  18  35  -4  30   0 0.22  0.0    1  8.4 16 220   M    M   9 16     24 210
23  58  44  51  13  14   0 0.78  0.0    0  7.8 18 160   M    M   9 1      28 160
24  58  35  47   9  18   0 0.24  0.0    0 23.8 40 240   M    M  10 13     59 230
25  35  27  31  -6  34   0    T    T    0 15.2 33 240   M    M  10 8      44 240
26  33  27  30  -7  35   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.1  9 350   M    M  10        12 360
27  33  23  28  -8  37   0    T    T    0  9.8 20 290   M    M  10 8      28 300
28  30  15  23 -13  42   0 0.01  0.2    T  5.2 14 230   M    M   8 18     20 200
29  51  29  40   4  25   0 0.00  0.0    0  9.0 20 200   M    M   6        25 210
30  62  42  52  17  13   0 0.01  0.0    0 13.7 21 220   M    M   9 1      33 210

A few 50s managed to sprinkle their way in, but the writing was on the wall.. We were in for a tough winter. 

The Season With v. The Season Without

We broke records in 2014. We started the year with 40.1 record breaking inches of snowfall in January and 86.3" that rocked Toledo’s record for a winter snowfall total.

We capped the year with the third least snowiest December on record, but would soon make up for that in troves January and February.

On average, a snowfall of just under 2" is typical for November along with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Neither 2014 or 2015 will fall within those standards



In comparison, November 2015 has been nothing shy of awesome. Yeah, I said it.
The second last month of the year has brought us highs near 80, many dry days and very little wintry-type concerns to rival last year. 

NOVEMBER 2015
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

 1  65  39  52   5  13   0 0.01  0.0    0 12.9 28 250   M    M   1 1      36 270
 2  70  36  53   6  12   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.8 13 220   M    M   0 1      17 220
 3  73  39  56  10   9   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.4  8 150   M    M   0 1      11 160
 4  76  42  59  13   6   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.0 13 250   M    M   1        17 250
 5  74  50  62  16   3   0 0.05  0.0    0  5.9 17 210   M    M   4 1      24 190
 6  65  47  56  11   9   0 0.16  0.0    0 14.3 28 250   M    M   8 1      43 250
 7  55  34  45   0  20   0 0.00  0.0    0 10.5 28 280   M    M   2 8      36 280
 8  51  27  39  -6  26   0 0.00  0.0    0  1.5 10 240   M    M   0 18     13 240
 9  56  27  42  -2  23   0 0.01  0.0    0  2.6 10  90   M    M   2 1      13  70
10  48  38  43  -1  22   0 0.19  0.0    0  4.6 12 320   M    M   8 1      16 320
11  57  31  44   0  21   0    T  0.0    0  5.8 14 190   M    M   0 18     19 140
12  55  45  50   7  15   0 0.03  0.0    0 22.0 40 250   M    M  10 1      53 230
13  47  40  44   1  21   0    T  0.0    0 19.5 33 270   M    M  10        40 260
14  50  32  41  -1  24   0 0.00  0.0    0  9.4 18 250   M    M   3        23 250
================================================================================


The month started with temperatures climbing through the 60s and 70s to our monthly high (so far) of 76° on the 4th. Our lowest temperatures were barely below the freezing point overnight and still not entirely winter-like on the 10th with a high of 48°. 

If we continue on this way, we'll be in great shape for a mild winter.
Check out Chris Vicker's story on El Nino to find out why our season may shape up to be the best in 2-3+ years.

http://www.wtol.com/clip/11999221/winter-weather-outlook-how-el-nino-will-impact-this-season