Tuesday, April 1, 2014

Heavy Rain Chances this Week

We all know the saying: "April showers...bring May flowers." We just didn't know Mother Nature could keep in line with our calendars so well. Only a few days into the new month and we are looking at our first rounds of heavy springtime rains. Here is the set-up, followed by river forecasts and severe weather threat levels:

Currently a storm system is moving into the western United States. A frontal system is laid out across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes acting as a highway for this storm to ride the next few days. The path of this system will allow for it bring with it some Pacific moisture as well as pick-up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. A recipe for heavy rains.

As the evolution of this system becomes a bit more clear it is likely that the heaviest rain from this system will be dropped along a St. Louis to Indianapolis to Columbus line. 3-5" of rain will be possible there. Over Northwest Ohio and Southeast Michigan 1-2" of rainfall appear more likely. Here is the latest forecast from the WPC:

Our RPM Forecast model shows a bit more detailed rainfall forecast totals, very inline with the forecast above: 

Keep those rain totals in mind we are not expecting a major flooding event for local rivers but there certainly will be a rise and lots of standing water in fields/yards. Here are the latest projections (as of Tuesday PM) for a few local rivers:

At this point the severe weather threat appears it will be confined more to the west and south. We will watch any threat that may evolve but right now heavier rains will be the main focus of this system Wednesday PM - Friday AM.