It always feels like some sort of resolution when temperatures return to 'normal' for whatever time of year it happens to be. Like hitting the last note of a song after a harsh dissonance, or lack of harmony.
Highs in the 70s? That's a normal May day.
Lows in the 20s? That's a normal December day.
But how often do we really achieve a 'normal' high temperature?
Using the month of November as an example, here are the normal highs, according to the National Weather Service's records and the actual highs recorded for the month:
AVERAGE HIGHS: ACTUAL HIGHS:
1-Nov | 57 | 1-Nov | 40 | ||||||
2-Nov | 56 | 2-Nov | 47 | ||||||
3-Nov | 56 | 3-Nov | 60 | ||||||
4-Nov | 55 | 4-Nov | 55 | ||||||
5-Nov | 55 | 5-Nov | 58 | ||||||
6-Nov | 55 | 6-Nov | 48 | ||||||
7-Nov | 54 | 7-Nov | 46 | ||||||
8-Nov | 54 | 8-Nov | 45 | ||||||
9-Nov | 53 | 9-Nov | 45 | ||||||
10-Nov | 53 | 10-Nov | 60 | ||||||
11-Nov | 52 | 11-Nov | 64 | ||||||
12-Nov | 52 | 12-Nov | 37 | ||||||
13-Nov | 51 | 13-Nov | 35 | ||||||
14-Nov | 51 | 14-Nov | 33 | ||||||
15-Nov | 50 | 15-Nov | 32 | ||||||
16-Nov | 50 | 16-Nov | 33 | ||||||
17-Nov | 49 | 17-Nov | 30 | ||||||
18-Nov | 49 | 18-Nov | 18 | ||||||
19-Nov | 48 | 19-Nov | 33 | ||||||
20-Nov | 48 | 20-Nov | 27 | ||||||
21-Nov | 47 | 21-Nov | 26 | ||||||
22-Nov | 46 | 22-Nov | 51 | ||||||
23-Nov | 46 | 23-Nov | 58 | ||||||
24-Nov | 45 | 24-Nov | 58 | ||||||
25-Nov | 45 | 25-Nov | 35 | ||||||
26-Nov | 44 | 26-Nov | 33 | ||||||
27-Nov | 44 | 27-Nov | 33 | ||||||
28-Nov | 43 | 28-Nov | 30 | ||||||
29-Nov | 43 | 29-Nov | 51 | ||||||
30-Nov | 42 | 30-Nov | 62 |
On only ONE single day out of 30, we actually matched the normal high temperature for this time of year.
Once.
1/30.
That's a 3.33% occurrence.
Once.
1/30.
That's a 3.33% occurrence.
A few times, we came close [Nov 3: 56/60°, Nov 5: 55/58°], but being consistently spot on with 'normal' temperatures is uncommon.
Does it matter? Not really. Monthly average temperatures can dictate the overall season, but if you have 15 days in the 30s and 15 days in the 50s, the average will still round out to be in the 40s.
Despite that, averages-- normals, typical temperatures-- are still important.
Averages factor in roughly 140 years of data, so while we may see larger temperature swings from day to day, over a long period of time, eventually an average will balance out.
For all recorded locations and cities, for every month, the average tells us what a typical day might be. That's the purpose it should serve, and actually matching those figures isn't something we need to strive for.
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