Chance for a White Christmas

Look outside. It's less than 2 weeks until Christmas and the ground is still bare. The forecast is calling for a warm-up this weekend. Chances don't look so good for a white Christmas. Or do they?

First, our chance in any given year for a white Christmas is around 40-50%. (For our purposes a white Christmas will mean any snow on the ground for the December 25th)

While snowfall this season has been lackluster, the pattern is going to pick-up again starting next week. We know that based on what's happening in the Pacific right now. Several storms are on-going (1,2) and the jet stream is very energetic (red arrows).

So what is our chance of a white Christmas? At this point, 2 weeks out I would say we have a better shot than normal for snow on Christmas!