Coldest Year Ever For Toledo?

Have you celebrated less than 37 birthdays in your life and lived in northwest Ohio?

If you answered yes to both, then this was the coldest year ever lived through. In fact only two years ('78 and '63) have been colder in the past 100 years in Toledo.

There are still a few more hours to make it official but it is very likely 2014 records an average temperature of just 47.2 degrees. The coldest month was January with an average temperature of just 16 degrees! Although the mild December spoiled any chances to break the record for coldest year ever recorded in Toledo. I have a feeling many will be okay missing the mark on that record.

Looking ahead too, the first few hours of 2015 look to start off very cold as well!

Snow? What Snow?

After a frigid and even snowy start to November, this has been one very quiet December so far as any wintry weather goes. Through 28 days only a 'Trace' of snow has been recorded. It looks likely that this will mark only the third time in Toledo history without measurable snow in December.

And the pattern looks quiet into the first few days of January. Below is a graphic for snowfall accumulations over the next 9 days. The search for winter snow this season will go on...

Santa's Bumpy Ride into NW Ohio

As the evening in question arrives, details of tonight's stormy weather are coming into crystal clear focus.

According to this graphical depiction from the Cleveland office of the National Weather Service, 50mph wind gusts, 20-30mph sustained winds, temps falling to the freezing point tonight, thunder, 100% cloud cover, heavy rain and light flurries are all on tap for the next 12-16 hours. 

Santa's about to have a bumpy ride.

NWS Cleveland

While we track forward along with the impending storms, winds continue to pose the greatest threat. With only a few hours of light snow flurries (from 9pm-4am), accumulations are not only unlikely, they're going to be nearly impossible to develop. 

Possible Snow flurries 8pm Wednesday Night: EURO, ECMWF Model

With the absence of widespread slick roadways and treacherous blacktop conditions, wind gusts up to 50mph become the focus of this event. 

Twisterdata.com, Surface Temp, Wind, MSLP: NAM Model

 Law ornaments, decorations, outdoor lights and 8 tiny reindeer statues are at risk of damage and entire removal from your yard. Many Christmas decorations don't weigh much, so make sure your most valuable possessions are brought indoors before the winds pick up. 

Today's timeline looks like this:

• 2pm: Scattered Rain, Light winds
• 4pm: Widespread Rain, Increasing Winds
• 6pm: Heavy rain, Gusty Winds
• 8pm: Scattered Rain, PEAK Winds
• 10pm: Light Rain/Snow Mix, PEAK Winds
• 12am: Flurries, Gusty Winds
• 2am: On/Off Flurries, Gusty Winds
• 4am: Flurries, Gusty Winds
• 6am: On/Off Flurries, Gusty Winds
• 8am: A Few Snow Showers, Blowing/Drifting Snow
• 10am: Snow Ends, Breezy

For most of Christmas Day, winds will range between 15-25mph, staying strong, and conditions will be dry.

Merry Christmas!

Winter Solstice

Tonight marks the beginning of the winter season. For record-keeping purposes, meteorological winter already began December 1st, but astrologically, we are now officially approaching the 'depth of winter'.

The sun's angle to the earth determines seasonal patterns

 With the sun's angle to the earth sinking to its farthest point to the south, we can expect December 21 to have the least amount of daylight. 

Sun warms the southern hemisphere during our winter season

 The sun will still shine through the winter, but with the rays directly overhead in the southern hemisphere, we experience winter while they experience summer. 

Winter officially begins at 6:03pm, December 21. Some years, it may occur earlier or later in the day, even falling on the 20th or 22nd of the month if the sun's angle hits its lowest point before or after midnight. This year, we will experience 9 hours and 9 minutes of daylight on December 21st, making it the 'shortest day' of the year. 

Imminent Christmas Weather

Confidence is growing as we approach the holidays this week. With only slight changes from day-to-day now as the imminent weather moves in, you can start to plan around the worst of it.

Monday will be mild, mainly dry, mostly cloudy and otherwise unremarkable. 

We can start to map out the timeline of this event beginning Monday evening:

After midnight, rain showers arrive. Scattered at first, leading into Tuesday morning. 

Monday night-Tuesday morning (12/22-12/23)

Tuesday will be a mild day with highs near 50°. Showers will track through the area all day long, moderate to heavy at times.

Up to 1/2" of rainfall is possible both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday morning (12/24)

Showers continue to fuel into the area all day Wednesday. Gulf coast moisture will be trapped over Ohio in a line stretching from Mississippi to Upstate New York.

Travel during the holidays will feel the impacts the most.
According to USA Today, a record number of Americans will be on the road this holiday season. AAA expects 98.6 million people to travel 50 miles or more this Christmas.

Into Wednesday evening, incredibly strong winds will be added to the mix.

Up until that point, however, we're only looking at rain showers. Due to warm air advection, snow is not a possibility until after midnight Wednesday into Thursday-- as Santa is making his deliveries. 

Warmth Monday-Wednesday keeps snow showers at bay until Christmas Day

Winds remain strong into the day Thursday. Some damage is possible-- better bring in those loose decorations now! Expect strongest gusts to be near 40mph at times. 

Rain showers will eventually filter in some snow flakes overnight Wednesday in Thursday with a wintry mix overnight creating slick roadways Thursday morning.

Thursday, snow showers will fall into a wet & newly frozen environment. Slick roadways are not only possible, but likely.

Early morning snow showers possible-- minimal accumualtions

With gusty winds and falling flakes, blowing and drifting snow is likely. Snowfall amounts will be minimal.

In summation:

1. Monday:                 Dry, cloudy, mild
2. Monday night:       Mild, Light rain showers arrive
3. Tuesday:                 Moderate to heavy rain, Warm
4. Tuesday Night:      Rain showers, Mild
5. Wednesday:           Moderate to heavy rain, Warm, Gusty Winds
6. Wednesday night: WINDY, Wintry Mix
7. Thursday:                WINDY, some snow, Cold

Pre-Christmas Storm Update

We have been tracking a storm that will impact the area in the days leading up to Christmas for the better part of a week now. As the storm approaches the west coast of the United States we are getting a much clearer picture of how the event will unfold on Tuesday, Wednesday and even Christmas itself. For the local area this will be mostly a mild rain event with very windy conditions.

TUESDAY: Winds will be steady but relatively weak throughout the day from the southwest. Rain showers are expected from near Chicago all the way east to the Atlantic Seaboard.

WEDNESDAY: Heavy rain showers are likely. Highs will climb into the low 50's. Winds will pick up through the day with wind gusts over 40 mph very likely by evening.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Air will turn colder near 30 with a few snow showers and windy conditions continuing. Gusts over 35 mph will continue to be possible. 

BY NEXT WEEKEND: Colder air will return on a more permanent basis. January has all the indications of being one very cold month....

UPDATE: Next Week Storm Potential

The chance of a storm bringing disruptive weather into Christmas next week remains a likely possibility across the Great Lakes region and up the East Coast.  The likely impacts include:

• Rain
• Gusty Winds
• Snow 

Remember a "Storm" doesn't mean exclusively snow...in fact rain and wind may be some of the larger impacts of this storm. 

Rain will become likely Tuesday and into Wednesday with gusty winds increasing into Christmas Eve.  Rain may change to some snow into Christmas morning bringing with it the chance of a White Christmas.  Differences in model solutions still exist, which is expected.  Some indications have surfaced that the greater energy from this storm may transition to the East Coast.  If this happens, we'd still feel the impacts of this storm with rains prior to Christmas, gusty winds and limited snow showers into Christmas morning.

Great Lakes Storm?

East Coast Storm?

Stay tuned for updates!

Delivering A Christmas Storm?

Very quiet weather is expected the rest of the week and into the weekend which puts all eyes on a much more active week of weather into Christmas next week.  For nearly a week now, the overall global weather pattern has been hinting that an intrusion of colder air would be likely into late December.  This combined with an active parade of Pacific Coast storms, conditions may ripen for a powerful storm that may disrupt holiday travel and Christmas plans.  

Animation of Christmas Eve Day into Christmas Day

Long range models...albeit still 7 days out have locked into some relative degree of consistency for a storm over the Great Lakes on Christmas Eve

ECMWF -- 192 Hour Forecast (MSLP Low of ~ 972 mb)

ECMWF -- 192 Hour Forecast 500mb Vorticity

GFS -- 192 Hour Forecast (MSLP Low of ~ 980 mb)

GFS -- 192 Hour Forecast 500mb Vorticity

• So what does this type of information tell us now? 
•  There will likely be a storm impacting the area the middle of next week. However this storm is over 1 week away and details will change. Simply be alert and prepared, this is just an early heads-up.  Many details and specifics will be determined over the coming days. 

• What can I expect?
• Rain to snow and gusty winds all will be possible.

• Will holiday travel be impacted?
• Yes, impacts to air travel and travel on the roads possible.

• When will this storm hit our area?
• Still early to tell, and timing will be adjusted, but Christmas Eve Day and Christmas Day may face adverse weather conditions.

• How much snow will we get?
• Way too early to tell!  Don't ask and don't believe anyone if they tell you.  In fact, not even sure if this will be rain or snow or a mix of both.  As with any winter storm, only trust reasonable snow forecasts 48 hour out!

• Will this bring a White Christmas?
• It's certainly possible Santa may deliver more than presents Christmas Eve. 

Winter Really Began "One Year Ago Today"

One year ago today many awoke to a solid 6 to 8" of fresh snow on the ground after the first of what would be a relentless barrage of winter weather to come.  Despite the heavy snow in mid December, last year we did NOT have a true white Christmas.  By the following weekend highs had soared into the 50s and melted away all the snow and hopes of a white Christmas.  By December 15th of last year an astounding 53% of the United States had snow cover on the ground.

Snow Cover -- December 15th, 2013

This year is a very different scene with no snow cover in the lower Great Lakes.  Only 26.8% of the United States has snow cover on the ground, mainly in the Northeast and mountain West.  

Snow Cover -- December 15th, 2014

Our next chance of snow will come on Saturday, however the actual energy that will drive the evolution of this snow chance is still far off the Pacific West Coast.  As of now, it has the potential to bring a light snow accumulation.  Beyond that, an active Pacific Northwest flow will bring a series of storms into the United States next week likely resulting in an active week leading up to Christmas.

Upper Air -- 500 mb -- forecast map on this Friday morning. 

The map above shows the energy flowing through the atmosphere headed into this upcoming weekend.  The first piece is working to develop our snow chances on Saturday over the Texas panhandle.  Another wave of energy hitting the Pacific Northwest may have a shot at developing a storm over the eastern United States Christmas Eve and into Christmas Day.  Stay tuned for details!
  

Chance for a White Christmas

Look outside. It's less than 2 weeks until Christmas and the ground is still bare. The forecast is calling for a warm-up this weekend. Chances don't look so good for a white Christmas. Or do they?

First, our chance in any given year for a white Christmas is around 40-50%. (For our purposes a white Christmas will mean any snow on the ground for the December 25th)

While snowfall this season has been lackluster, the pattern is going to pick-up again starting next week. We know that based on what's happening in the Pacific right now. Several storms are on-going (1,2) and the jet stream is very energetic (red arrows).

So what is our chance of a white Christmas? At this point, 2 weeks out I would say we have a better shot than normal for snow on Christmas!

Maumee River Flood Stage Changes

Nearly every spring and winter the Maumee river deals with flooding following heavy rainfall events. This upcoming year changes have been made by the National Weather Service in Cleveland to increase minor and moderate flood stage qualifications at Grand Rapids and Waterville. Here is the exact statement from the NWS:



PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1118 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

TO: SUBSCRIBERS: EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...NEWS MEDIA AND
    OTHER USERS

SUBJECT: RIVER FORECAST SERVICES IN GRAND RAPIDS AND WATERVILLE
OHIO WILL BE MODIFIED EFFECTIVE JANUARY 12, 2015.

EFFECTIVE MONDAY JANUARY 12, 2015 THE FLOOD STAGES WILL BE CHANGED
ON TWO LOCAL RIVER FORECAST POINTS:

THE MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES AT THE OFFICIAL
RIVER FORECAST POINT FOR THE MAUMEE RIVER AT GRAND RAPIDS WILL BE
CHANGED FROM THE CURRENT STAGES OF 15.0...16.5...AND 20.0 FEET
RESPECTIVELY TO 17.5...18.5...AND 19.5 FEET

THE MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES AT THE OFFICIAL
RIVER FORECAST POINT FOR THE MAUMEE RIVER AT WATERVILLE WILL BE
RAISED FROM THE CURRENT STAGES OF 9.0...12.0...AND 15.0 FEET TO
11.0...15.0...AND 16.0 FEET RESPECTIVELY.

IT IS NECESSARY FOR THE NWS TO PERIODICALLY UPDATE FLOOD STAGES AT
RIVER FORECAST POINTS AS CHANGES...BOTH NATURAL AND
MAN MADE...OCCUR OVER A WATERSHED. THESE UPDATES ARE NEEDED TO
ENSURE THE BEST QUALITY RIVER FORECASTS AND RESULTING WARNINGS TO
LOCAL COMMUNITIES. THE NWS...OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER
(OHRFC)...AND LOCAL AND COUNTY OFFICIALS HAVE SUPPORTED THE ABOVE
CHANGES.

THE DATA AND FORECASTS FOR THESE AND OTHER POINTS CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/ OR WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CLE

THE DATA FOR THESE STIES ARE PROVIDED BY OUR PARTNER...THE USGS.
WITHOUT THIS CRITICAL DATA...FORECASTS AND WARNINGS WOULD NOT BE
ABLE TO BE PROVIDED AT THESE LOCATIONS. THE USGS WEBSITE IS:
HTTP://OH.WATER.USGS.GOV

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING THESE CHANGES PLEASE CONTACT:
SARAH JAMISON
SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
NWS CLEVELAND OHIO
SARAH.JAMISON@NOAA.GOV

Why do we strive to be 'near normal'?

It always feels like some sort of resolution when temperatures return to 'normal' for whatever time of year it happens to be. Like hitting the last note of a song after a harsh dissonance, or lack of harmony. 

Highs in the 70s? That's a normal May day. 

Lows in the 20s? That's a normal December day. 

But how often do we really achieve a 'normal' high temperature?

Using the month of November as an example, here are the normal highs, according to the National Weather Service's records and the actual highs recorded for the month:

                                    AVERAGE HIGHS:                                ACTUAL HIGHS:

		1-Nov	57			1-Nov	40
		2-Nov	56			2-Nov	47
		3-Nov	56			3-Nov	60
		4-Nov	55			4-Nov	55
		5-Nov	55			5-Nov	58
		6-Nov	55			6-Nov	48
		7-Nov	54			7-Nov	46
		8-Nov	54			8-Nov	45
		9-Nov	53			9-Nov	45
		10-Nov	53			10-Nov	60
		11-Nov	52			11-Nov	64
		12-Nov	52			12-Nov	37
		13-Nov	51			13-Nov	35
		14-Nov	51			14-Nov	33
		15-Nov	50			15-Nov	32
		16-Nov	50			16-Nov	33
		17-Nov	49			17-Nov	30
		18-Nov	49			18-Nov	18
		19-Nov	48			19-Nov	33
		20-Nov	48			20-Nov	27
		21-Nov	47			21-Nov	26
		22-Nov	46			22-Nov	51
		23-Nov	46			23-Nov	58
		24-Nov	45			24-Nov	58
		25-Nov	45			25-Nov	35
		26-Nov	44			26-Nov	33
		27-Nov	44			27-Nov	33
		28-Nov	43			28-Nov	30
		29-Nov	43			29-Nov	51
		30-Nov	42			30-Nov	62

On only ONE single day out of 30, we actually matched the normal high temperature for this time of year.

Once.
1/30.

That's a 3.33% occurrence.

A few times, we came close [Nov 3: 56/60°, Nov 5: 55/58°], but being consistently spot on with 'normal' temperatures is uncommon.

Does it matter? Not really. Monthly average temperatures can dictate the overall season, but if you have 15 days in the 30s and 15 days in the 50s, the average will still round out to be in the 40s.

Despite that, averages-- normals, typical temperatures-- are still important.

Averages factor in roughly 140 years of data, so while we may see larger temperature swings from day to day, over a long period of time, eventually an average will balance out.

For all recorded locations and cities, for every month, the average tells us what a typical day might be. That's the purpose it should serve, and actually matching those figures isn't something we need to strive for.

Winter Begins -- A Look Toward A White Christmas?

Meteorological winter officially begins today, but after a bone chilling November the harsh reality of yet another winter is back and now fresh in our minds.  The average temperature in Toledo through November was 35.1° a solid -6.3° BELOW AVERAGE!

Well, does this mean a white Christmas ahead and another cold month?  Not so fast.  Too early to tell about a specific date (December 25th) as one storm could be the difference maker, but overall a major pattern shift is underway.

My December Prediction:  Much WARMER than Average -- Near Normal Precipitation

This is supported by a noticeable shift to a more "zonal" west to east flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere around 30,000 ft.  This flow from the Pacific coast, NOT interior Canada favors a much warmer scenario. 


Jet Stream -- This weekend (December 7th)

Longer range CFSv2 Climate models showed a major shift across North America toward a warmer December.  Pictured below is the temperature anomaly for consecutive daily model runs for the month of December.  A major trend toward a very warm December is clear. 



CFSv2 Climate Model for December

The answer to the white Christmas is still elusive, but it is clear that overall, December may very well be a warmer than normal month. 

~Meteorologist Chris Vickers