Tropics 2011: An Active Year

This Atlantic hurricane season yields a surprising statistic: 15 named storms in the Atlantic Basin for the 2011 Hurricane Season make this the 10^th most active season of all time. Of all time!

Not only that, but only 14 seasons on record have had 15 or more named storms. Those years include:

• 1887 -- 19 (Would-be) named storms -- They hadn't start naming storms yet back then -- 12 Hurricanes


• 1933 -- 21 (Would-be) named storms -- 10 Hurricanes


• 1936 -- 16 (Would-be) named storms -- 7 Hurricanes


• 1969 -- 18 named storms -- 12 Hurricanes *Including Camille


• 1995 -- 19 named storms -- 11 Hurricanes *Including Felix and Opal


• 2000 -- 15 named storms -- 8 Hurricanes


• 2001 -- 15 named storms -- 9 Hurricanes


• 2003 -- 16 named storms -- 7 Hurricanes *Including Isabel


• 2004 -- 15 named storms -- 9 Hurricanes *Including Charley, Frances and Ivan


• 2005 -- 28! named storms -- 15! Hurricanes *Including Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma


• 2007 -- 15 named storms -- 7 Hurricanes *Including Dean and Felix


• 2008 -- 16 named storms -- 9 Hurricanes *Including Gustav and Ike


• 2010 -- 19 named storms -- 12 Hurricanes

And now, 2011. Which includes 15 named storms and 3 Hurricanes, including Irene and Katia.

The most active season on the list is 2005 where from JUNE 8th all the way to JANUARY 7th, 28 named storms, 15 Hurricanes, and 4 Category 5 Hurricanes tore through the Atlantic.



Hurricane season typically comes to an end in November.

Tropical Update: Ophelia/Hilary

After a rather inactive stretch in the tropics, new storms have begun to crop up.
Tropical Storm Ophelia is moving through the Atlantic, while Hurricane Hilary tracks near Mexico in the Eastern Pacific.



As of 5pm, Thursday evening, Ophelia has max sustained winds of 65mph, just shy of hurricane status (74+mph winds) and is moving west at 13mph. As you can see from the National Hurricane Center's projections, Ophelia is expected to move inward, then track east and back out to sea.

Hurricane Hilary currently has sustained winds of 105mph.



Currently a Category 2 hurricane, the storm is moving just along the coast, tracking westward at 10mph. While Hilary is likely to skim the coast with some rain and gusty winds, it's not expected to make landfall.

What a Difference a Day Makes

After yesterday's models were split as to whether or not the track of Tropical Storm Nate would bring it up into the Gulf Coast, or NW into Mexico, a unanimous decision seems to have been made.



Notice the similarities in model projections for Nate, which have the Tropical Storm moving into the Mexican coast by early Monday morning. Right now, a tropical storm warning is in effect for the coastal region from Chilitepec to Celestun. Nate's winds are near 65mph with a relatively stationary motion

Active 2011 Season

As discussed by Ryan, several areas of concern have now developed into noteable Tropical Storms set to make landfall.



After reaching Category 4 status earlier this week, Hurricane Katia is no longer being categorized as a Major Hurricane. As of 5am Thursday morning, Katia had sustained winds of 90mph (the storm would need 110+ for it to be considered a Major Hurricane) and is tracking Northward at 14mph. Early tracks planned for Katia to have some sort of impact on the East Coast, but as things are constantly changing in the Gulf, Katia's path has taken a turn, so to speak, for the better.



A rare, but reassuring occurance... ALL models agree that Katia will now TURN back out towards the Atlantic Ocean, leaving the United States unscathed by its fury.

Alternately, it looks as though TS Maria as well as TS Nate will have coastal impacts, but not initially on the US.



Moving West at a quick pace of 23mph, Tropical Storm Maria is packing sustained winds of 50mph. Projections for the storm have Maria reaching the eastern Caribbean islands within the next 48 hours. As of 5am Thursday, forecasters say Maria has a rather disorganized formation, and may not band together in time to make a large impact.



Finally, a trapped and slow moving TS Nate is projected to make landfall in Mexico between Monday and Tuesday of next week. With sustained winds of 45mph, Tropical Storm Nate is only moving at 1mph to the East, so it still has a lot of time and resources to tap into (being centered over the Gulf of Mexico) to organize and gain a bit of power.

Tropics Train

In a year that has already seen 12 named storms, the Atlantic basin looks to be just now reaching its stride. Yesterday, Hurricane Katia reached Category 4 status with sustained winds of 135 mph. Making it the strongest storm so far in the 2011 year.

[caption id="attachment_2242" align="alignnone" width="300" caption="Hurricane Katia forecasted path"][/caption]

In additon to Katia, the National Hurricane Center is investigating at least 3 more areas for possible development in the next 48 hours.

[caption id="attachment_2243" align="alignnone" width="300" caption="Red Circle will likely become the next tropical storm by WED"][/caption]

[caption id="attachment_2244" align="alignnone" width="300" caption="Investigation area, near the Cape Verde Islands"][/caption]

As a testiment to just how far long-range tropical forecasts are coming, take a look at the official National Hurricane Center forecasts from earlier this year:

The conditions expected this year have historically produced some active Atlantic hurricane seasons. Therefore, the 2011 season could see activity comparable to a number of active seasons since 1995. We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2011:

• 12-18 Named Storms,


• 6-10 Hurricanes


• 3-6 Major Hurricanes


• An ACE range of 105%-200% of the 1981-2010 median.

Hurricane Katia-A Close Call

Enough model uncertainty still exists so it remains a "close call" but all indications point toward a sharp turn in Hurricane Katia by Thursday morning.  This should steer the then major hurricane back out to the Atlantic Ocean avoiding any significant impact on the US coastline.

Current Satellite Imagery:



Latest forecast path:



Check back for the latest updates through the week!

Tropical Update: TS Lee/Hurricane Katia (Again)

Is it just me or does Katia seem to have a hard time making up her mind?

From Tropical Storm to Hurricane BACK to Tropical Storm, and as of 7am Sunday morning, Katia is now a Hurricane once again. I guess that's the problem when sustained winds linger right around 70-75mph (the cutoff for a hurricane strength storm is 74+). Even so, as the storm progresses at 12mph to the NW, questions are being raised as to when and IF Katia will affect the US.



Current projections for the storm's path have Katia moving just south of Bremuda Wednesday and towards the East Coast next weekend.

In the Gulf of Mexico, TS Lee is proving that being a Tropical Storm doesn't mean you can't cause major damage. The relentless storm has been hovering over the Gulf coast for days now, dropping inches upon inches of rain and requiring a certain amount of alertness from local authorities. Since Friday, over 90 Tornado Warnings have been issued because of Lee and its components.



Because TS Lee is only moving NE at 3mph, damages caused by the storm have yet to be surveyed because areas under its direct impact are still feeling the wrath of the storm. For now, tens of thousands of residents are without power, coastal regions are experiencing massive flooding and at least ten confirmed tornadoes have touched down.

Tropical Update: Developing Hurricane Katia, TS Lee

After being downgraded to a Tropical Storm yesterday, Katia has regained hurricane strength over the Atlantic with sustained winds of 75mph.



Meanwhile, Tropical Depression #13 has been named and upgraded to Tropical Storm Lee. As of 4pm Lee had 45 mph sustained winds and was moving at a painstakingly slow pace, going north at 2 miles per hour.

Both Katia and Lee have sparked discussions regarding the potential track and strength of each, especially when (and in Katia's case, IF) they hit the coast.



Preparations continue through the Gulf Coast region and similar to Hurricane Irene, massive flooding is a number one concern for these residents. Mississippi's governor, Haley Barbour, has declared a state of emergency in seven counties on or near the coast, saying the storm is expected to cause tremendous flooding over the holiday weekend.

Tropical Update: Katia/TS (to be) Lee

According to the National Hurricane Center, as of 11am, hurricane Katia has max sustained winds of 75 mph. It maintains its Category 1 hurricane status as it continues to move westerly at 18mph.



Projections for the storm have Katia continuing to move west with winds increasing to 115mph with gusts of nearly 140 mph by 8am sunday.



Interestingly enough, if the name 'Katrina' hadn't been retired back in 2006 after the massive 2005 hurricane rocked New Orleans, Katia would be Katrina -- the name Katia replaced Katrina on the 6-year rotating list of names maintained and updated by WMO.

Meanwhile, activity continues to spark the formation of Tropical Storm (to be) Lee in the Gulf of Mexico. Although the storm hasn't gained enough wind speed or organization to be categorized as a tropical storm yet, forecasters say it's likely to happen within the next 24 to 48 hours.



To officially be classified as a Tropical Depression, the organized system of clouds and thunderstorms must have a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Once the winds surpass that level, the storm is upgraded to a Tropical Storm (39-73mph), and finally a hurricane once winds are above 73 mph.

And in addition to all of that, there is a 50% chance of Tropical Cyclone development just north of Bremuda! What an active week. We'll keep you posted :)

Hurricane Hall of Fame

Okay, so maybe it shouldn't be referred to as the 'Hall of Fame', but this list does consist of some very well known storms.
Not even a week after Irene slid up the East Coast, authorities are now talking about retiring the hurricane's name so another 'Irene' may never exist.

Since the World Meteorological Organization began retiring hurricane names in 1954, 75 names have been permanently removed from the rotating lists of names for Atlantic Ocean hurricanes.



As expected, some of these names are truly historical. Who could forget Katrina? Andrew? Camile? These three names, among several others are no longer part of the alphabetical lists of storm names that rotate every six years for the Atlantic Ocean region because of the destruction they caused.

In the case of Irene, WMO officials say it's too early to say whether or not the name 'Irene' will be retired. A decision will be made in an annual meeting next March to review the year's previous hurricane season (which runs from June 1-Nov 30).

The decision to retire a name is made based on whether or not the hurricane in question resulted in numerous deaths or costly damage so much so that using the name to label a future storm would be considered insensitive to those greatly affected by the previous one.

Irene, for example, made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane and caused at least 41 deaths (the count may still rise as missing persons are accounted for) and billions of dollars in damage.


Whether the name is retired or not, i think everyone was happy to say "Good Night, Irene" once the storm finally took itself out of commission.

Hurricane (or soon to be) Katia

Sometime this afternoon, after further aircraft reconnaissance missions through the circulation of Katia, it will likely be determined that hurricane force winds have been established.  This will make for the 2nd hurricane of the season.



Katia will likely intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane by this weekend, but is expected to remain mainly over water with very minimal impacts through the weekend.  Atmospheric steering currents will likely bear a re-curving effect on this storm directing it northward into the Atlantic.  (*Note this steering current is often due to a Atlantic Subtropical high pressure system, or a Bermuda high)  At this point concern for a landfall on the US coastline appears to be low. 



On the other hand, computer models indicate tropical wave over the Gulf of Mexico may have a more immediate effect on the United States.  Pictured below is the GFS forecast model valid Sunday afternoon.  Notice the tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico.

 

Irene gone, Hello Katia?

[caption id="attachment_2202" align="alignnone" width="300" caption="Then Tropical Storm Irene as the eye passes over New York City"][/caption]

As of 11am Monday morning, Irene is no longer considered a tropical system. Although the storm produced maximum wind gusts to 115mph in parts of North Carolinas shore, the system will long be remembered for the historic flooding.

North Carolina Wind Gusts

Pennsylvania Wind Gusts

New York Wind Gusts

New England Wind Gusts

An example of the extreme flooding occuring in New England, in particular Vermont, as a result of heavy rains from Irene.

<iframe width="420" height="345" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/FRwdQYjC_OI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

All is quiet now over the Atlantic, right? Not even close.
While parts of New England was being flooded and battered by Irene, Tropical Storm Jose formed. You might have asked, 'why haven't I heard about Jose?'.  The answer is simple. It was a short lived storm which developed and quickly died out in a matter of 2 days.

[caption id="attachment_2199" align="alignnone" width="300" caption="Monday morning satellite picture. I = Irene, J = Jose. Both are no longer tropical systems. "][/caption]

As if that wasn't enough, another tropical system is on the verge of being named. As it stands right now Tropical Depression 12 only bosts winds of 35 mph but is expected to strengthen to Hurricane status by weeks end.  It would earn the name Katia, replacing Katrina in the hurricane name rotation (Katrina was retired after 2005). As you can see from the map below, this storm has over 2 weeks before it would even be within range of striking the US.

[caption id="attachment_2200" align="alignnone" width="300" caption="Soon to be Katia's projected path, per the NHC. "][/caption]

 You get the scope of how far away Tropical Depression 12 is from the United States when you look at the satellite view. Only a stones throw from Africa.



Predictions before the hurricane season said this would be an active year....so far that has been the case.

“The category of the storm does not tell the whole story.”

“The category of the storm does not tell the whole story,” FEMA Director, Craig Fugate, reminds folks. Major concerns surrounding Irene are not in intensity nor organization -- they are flooding, storm surges, and heavy downpours.

As Irene heads right for NYC, street level waters rise, and areas of the heavily populated city become unrecognizable under a sea of flood water. Still categorized as a Category 1 Hurricane, Irene is carving a path of destruction up the coast, and authorities are having some of their worst fears confirmed.

The storm's landfall is expected midday in NYC Sunday. Reports from yesterday recorded anywhere from 12-24'' of rain in areas of North Carolina, and an estimated 10'' in Delaware. Irene is still pulling significant moisture from the ocean, so similar rain levels can be expected in the New Englad states for the second half of the weekend.

Hurricane Irene: Update Saturday -- 5AM

It has been 1077 days since a hurricane has made landfall in the United States. The last cyclone to hit the U.S. was hurricane Ike on September 13, 2008. After nearly three years, we'll reset that number back to zero today.

As of 5am Saturday, Irene is directly over the Outer Banks and NC coast with 90 mph sustained winds and gusts of nearly 110 mph. The storm has been downgraded to a Category 1 due to a slight decrease in intensity, but that's not to say the threat of severe weather (and consequences) has diminished.

Airports are shutting down, areas of NYC are being mandatorily evacuated, public transporttaion is coming to a hault, professional sporting events are being rescheduled,  and the entire East Coast is preparing for one of the largest impacts from a hurricane in decades.

President Barak Obama has called Irene "extremely dangerous and costly" storm.

Hurricane Irene Update -- 1 PM Friday

Within the next 24 hours Irene's extreme impact will be felt across North Carolina.  She is now expected to make landfall as a strong category 2 hurricane.  A slight decrease in the intensity is due to upper level shear it is battling just off the eastern seaboard.  This shear and the slightly weaker projection is a sliver of good news in an otherwise dire situation that still exists.  Severe coastal flooding and erosion, inland flooding and damaging winds are still all major hazards through the weekend all along the east coast.

The second landfall is still expected through the day Sunday on the Island of Long Island.  This could be the strongest hurricane to hit Long Island since Hurricane Gloria in 1985. 

Updated Hurricane Track:

:

Hurricane Irene Update-9 AM Thursday

The latest analysis indicates Hurricane Irene could have devastating impacts from the Carolina's through New England this weekend.  Model consensus show initial landfall around the Outer Banks (pictured below) late Saturday evening.

[caption id="attachment_2172" align="alignnone" width="300" caption="GFDL-Landfall of Irene Sat. PM (North Carolina)"][/caption]

The GFDL model depicted above actually is showing the landfall point west of other model consensus.  I expect, and agree with the NHC forecast path which is expected to be west of this point over the eastern tip of the Outer Banks. 

Irene then is expected to emerge into the Chesapeake Bay area and head northward with a second landfall possible over Long Island, New York.

 

[caption id="attachment_2170" align="alignnone" width="300" caption="NAM Sea Level Pressure and Precipitation forecast for Sunday morning 8 AM"][/caption]

This could be one of the most powerful hurricanes in decades to impact Long Island, New York City and New England and could have devastating and deadly consequences brought on by coastal flooding, inland flooding, and intense winds.  Stay tuned for updates!

Hurricane Irene: Cat. 3, Major Hurricane

A status change for Irene makes her a major player in this week's weather for a large portion of the United States.

Hurricane Irene has strengthened to a major Category 3 storm as it heads toward the East Coast.

Hurricane Irene is gaining strength on a course that may take it near North Carolina this weekend and into southern New England early next week. Not only that, but with a max sustained wind of 120 mph and 150 mph gusts, Irene packs a big punch, and areas under the gun next week include Washington DC, New York City, and Boston.

Evacuations have begun on a tiny barrier island off North Carolina early Wednesday in a test of whether people in the
crosshairs of the first serious hurricane along the East Coast in years will heed orders to get out of the way.

Irene is centered over the Bahamas Wednesday and is moving west-northwest near 12 mph.

Not convinced? Look at this:
“Irene is an extremely dangerous storm,” says Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground Inc. in Ann Arbor. “It has the highest potential of any storm in the last 50 years to make it all the way to New England as a Category 3.”

We'll continue to track Irene and keep you posted.

Irene Update -- 1PM Tuesday

Hurricane Irene is expected to become a major category 3 hurricane by this evening as it roars toward the Bahamas.  The eastward shift in the hurricane path and computer models continue to be a trend and it is something I'll continue to monitor this week. 



(Enhanced IR Satellite with forecast path and various model projections)

All major cities on the East Coast are on high alert for impacts from this hurricane which include high surf, heavy rains, storm surge with inland flooding and strong winds.

First Atlantic Hurricane

Hello Irene!  The first hurricane of the Atlantic Basin has arrived.  With winds now at 75 mph it is expected to graze the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba before driving into the Bahamas en route to the Atlantic coast of Florida.  At this point there is a HIGH probability of a landfall at hurricane strength on the US mainland.  Here is the most recent satellite imagery:



Here is the latest hurricane track and position of Irene by 5 PM on Friday as a category 2 hurricane:



Me, Myself, and Irene

As of 1pm Sunday, Tropical Storm Irene is dumping heavy rain on the northern Leeward Islands and the system is expected to strengthen as it heads toward Puerto Rico. The National Hurricane Center says Irene could become a hurricane Monday, especially if its track takes it primarily over the water, where it is more likely to gain speed and energy. So far, the 9th named storm of the 2011 hurricane season has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.  Sustained winds must reach 74 mph for the storm to become a hurricane.

 A projection of Irene's track have it moving directly through Puerto Rico Sunday, into Cuba Wenesday, and into the southern coast of Florida by Friday.