By this time of year, Toledo should have typically seen at least one frosty morning. On a 30 year climatological average, October 6th is the date that this area sees the first frost of the year.
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| First Frost/Freeze Data; NWS |
Frost forms under the same circumstances as dew-- only the air is near or below freezing. Frost can actually occur under slightly warmer conditions than a hard freeze: 36° or cooler. With overnight lows forecast to stay in the 40s and 50s over the next week or so, it'll be well into the month of October before a true frost develops.
A freeze looks just as unlikely. At 32° or cooler, a hard freeze can kill vegetation and growth left over from the growing months. The average first freeze date is October 18th. Considering the coolest overnight low we've experienced all year is the 38° F night we had from October 7-8th, a significant change in the weather pattern needs to take place before we're in frost or freeze territory.
With the latest freeze on record falling on November 15th, I can reassure you that we aren't about to break any records, but going this long into the month of October without frost or freeze is quite the accomplishment.
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