Hurricane Sandy -- One Year Ago

Hurricane Sandy churned up an angry Atlantic Ocean as it encountered the warmer Gulf Stream current and re-intensified once again off the coast of a mid Atlantic with sustained winds to 90 mph and an astounding central pressure of 943 mb.  Within 24 hours Sandy would drive a massive wall of water -- a storm surge- into the Mid Atlantic and New England States. The official landfall coincided with a post tropical transition which continued to blast the East Coast with winds 60-90 mph, heavy rain and severe coastal flooding. 

Here is more graphical information from the National Hurricane Center:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/SANDY_graphics.shtml

Here is an excerpt from the 11 AM NHC Discussion on the 29th of October contining to detail the life threatening nature of this storm:

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...OR GALE-FORCE WINDS...ARE ALREADY

OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO LONG ISLAND. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...NEW YORK CITY...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND...BY THIS EVENING. WINDS
AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING.  IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES
OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE
BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Morning Contrails

Do you ever look up to the skies a see the contrails left behind by jetliners? It is a sign that the upper levels of the atmosphere is very cold. This morning the contrails were so vibrant we could actually see them from outer space! Here is the early morning satellite shot:

So Far, No Frost

By this time of year, Toledo should have typically seen at least one frosty morning. On a 30 year climatological average, October 6th is the date that this area sees the first frost of the year. 

First Frost/Freeze Data; NWS

Frost forms under the same circumstances as dew-- only the air is near or below freezing. Frost can actually occur under slightly warmer conditions than a hard freeze: 36° or cooler. With overnight lows forecast to stay in the 40s and 50s over the next week or so, it'll be well into the month of October before a true frost develops. 

A freeze looks just as unlikely. At 32° or cooler, a hard freeze can kill vegetation and growth left over from the growing months. The average first freeze date is October 18th. Considering the coolest overnight low we've experienced all year is the 38° F night we had from October 7-8th, a significant change in the weather pattern needs to take place before we're in frost or freeze territory.

With the latest freeze on record falling on November 15th, I can reassure you that we aren't about to break any records, but going this long into the month of October without frost or freeze is quite the accomplishment. 

A Lesson on Fog

Whether it's a cancellation, a delay, or botched travel plans, fog can cause all kinds of issues for everyone. 

This week has been one of the foggiest of 2013 so far! But why?

There are a few different types of fog, each with different properties and catalysts. 

Radiation

Advection

Frontal

These are just a few that we deal with on a seasonal basis here in Northwest Ohio. 

Radiation fog may be considered the most common. 

Radiation Fog; Picture Courtesy crh.noaa.gov/

This type of fog typically forms at night or just before the sun comes up when conditions are nearly calm and skies are clear. Everyday, due to something called diurnal heating, warmth is absorbed by the earth's surface from the sun. 

Clear skies at night allow the surface temperature to cool down at a faster rate overnight, so when there aren't any clouds to act as a 'blanket' over the surface, warmth collected through the day is lost more rapidly in the evening.

Humidity levels reach 100%, and POOF: fog. 

That's also why recent rains typically cause fog by the next morning. Higher dew points allow the atmosphere to reach saturation quicker, leading to the development of these pesky low level clouds. 

Advection fog looks like radiation fog, but is caused by warm air moving over cold surfaces.

Advection Fog; Picture Courtesy crh.noaa.gov/

Warm air moving into an area can cause rising motion. Air that rises also reaches its saturation point sooner, causing fog to develop. This is a common occurrence over large bodies of water. Lake Erie, for example, will not 'radiate' heat at the same rate as the surrounding lake shores, thus the surface of the water is cooler. Advection fog forms when warm air drifts over that cold surface and water molecules condense out of the air, creating clouds. 

Finally, Frontal fog. 

Steam Fog; Picture Courtesy crh.noaa.gov/

This type of fog forms when a cooler, but drier layer of air, is brought to saturation through evaporation. This could be from rain drops falling into cool, dry air, or from evaporation coming off the surface of a lake or other body of water (also known as steam fog).

Now, in a situation like this week, school delays (and in some extreme cases, closings) are direct results of a foggy morning. So we'll look for these many factors to help forecast the arrival or development of early fog. 

Once it's developed, we'll often say that the sun will 'burn off' the early morning fog.
I promise, there is no fire involved!
It simply means that the sun's heat will help evaporate the moisture that is keeping the air saturated, and as conditions dry out, the fog lifts or dissolves.