Early Summer Algae Forecast

There will be algae on Lake Erie this summer. No question about that. But just how big will the bloom be? It's tough to know exactly for sure at this point but below is an early indication of how much phosphorous has come down the Maumee River this spring. That phosphorous is one of the main 'fuels' that feed algae blooms. So far the numbers have been near average and slightly lower than last year. The charts below are provided by Laura Johnson from the National Center for Water Quality Research.

Severe Potential -- Greatest Of The Season

It takes a full mixing bowl of ingredients to create an atmosphere that produces severe weather.  Today, many of the ingredients come together for the greatest severe potential across the area of this season.  The outlook for thunderstorms, some potentially severe will be greatest between the hours of 3 PM to 7 PM.  It all starts with the atmosphere aloft:  



500 mb flow aloft and atmospheric water vapor.
 The divergent flow aloft and increasing shear provide the lift, shear and dynamics for potential severe storms. 

 

Other necessary ingredients include CAPE (Convectively Available Potential Energy) which provides the energy for storms.  This energy comes in the form higher moisture in the air and sunshine during the day.

 

 

CAPE values approach 1,500 j/kg or greater this afternoon

 

Severe threat will include damaging winds, small hail, dangerous lightning and a potential tornado.  Be alert and aware!

Greatest Severe Threat After 3 PM

Hour By Hour potential storms at 5:30 PM

Hour By Hour potential storms at 7 PM this evening

 

Stay with the WTOL StormTrack Weather team for details and coverage this afternoon and evening!

 

~Meteorologist Chris Vickers

 

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April 2015 vs. April 2014 (interesting similarities)

How is this spring coming along?

This graphic is for this April, 2015.

This graphic is for April, 2014 - last year.

The highest temperature for April in both years is 77°.

The average high temperature is within 0.5°.

Both years are 0.6° cooler than the normal.

Does this mean the summer is shaping up to be comparable as well?

I see nothing conclusive at this point to sway me one way or the other.

All I know is after this winter I am ready for summer

and you will not hear me complain about the heat.  Not even once!

Chief Meteorologist Robert Shiels

April's Blood Moon

While the next lunar eclipse will be partially visible in our neck of the woods, it's going to be a challenge to see it. 

Photo of Blood Moon; Courtesy CNN

During an event of this nature, the moon crosses beneath a shadow that is cast by the earth when the sun is directly behind it. The earth's atmosphere filters out most of the blue light through a process of light scattering, and the moon appears red in the earth's shadow! Hence the nickname, 'blood moon'.

For one of two reasons, April 4th's 'Blood Moon' will be very difficult to view Saturday morning. 

Here's why:

1. This is the briefest (shortest-lived) total lunar eclipse of the century! 

We're talking a fraction of the time it takes most other lunar eclipses to begin and end in our sky. 

The path of the lunar eclipse visibility April 4th, 2015; Courtesy of timeanddate.com

The image above shows the visibility of the lunar eclipse under perfect sky conditions.
Imagine clear viewing in parts of Australia and Alaska and more limited visibility farther from the center of the standard deviation.

While most of North America should have at least a partial view of the event, its duration may limit viewing possibilities even further. Some eclipse timelines can stretch beyond a full hour, but Saturday's Blood Moon will only be visible for 4 minutes. 

Yep, 4 minutes. 

Well, 4 minutes, 43 seconds, to be exact. 

According to NASA, the reason for the shorter duration of the event is the fact that the moon will be crossing through the outer edge of the Earth's shadow, rather than passing directly through the center. 

Starting at 6:16am EDT, the moon will cross into the earth's shadow.
The total lunar eclipse happens from 7:58am-8:02am EDT.

This 4 minute span will be the best opportunity to grab an award-winning photo of the Blood Moon.

2. Cloud cover will limit visibility, and sunrise will interrupt the view.

Saturday's sunrise is at 7:14am, limiting moon-viewing even before the eclipse is set to take place.

Even so, cloud cover will probably limit visibility so much that catching a glimpse of the eclipse may just be a pipe dream, anyway. 

Showers will end by 3am, but cloud cover will persist into the morning hours.

Maybe next time, Blood Moon!

Fog Blog

FOG /fôɡ,fäɡ/
noun:
Water that has condensed close to ground level, producing a cloud of very small droplets that reduces visibility to less than 1 km, or 0.625 miles.

Fog on Anderson Rd. in Bowling Green, OH; Photo Credit: Samantha Kirby

As meteorologists, we report fog in many circumstances; most of which occur when visibility is not below 0.625 miles. Fog can be a very flexible term used to describe several different types of weather conditions, resulting in many different categories of fog.

• Radiation Fog sounds dangerous, but is a harmless concept. Under clear skies with calm winds at night, temperatures cool rapidly at the surface, causing a deep layer of condensation near the ground. This is very common in NW Ohio and SE Michigan.
• We experienced a few instances of Freezing Fog this past winter in which surfaces are coated in a layer of ice by supercooled water droplets suspended in the air. Under incredibly cold conditions, Ice Fog and/or Diamond Dust may even occur and limit visibility. 
• Valley Fog or Upslope Fog, rarely occur in Toledo-- for obvious reasons. For this to develop, light winds must force air up an embankment (hillside, mountain, valley, etc) to a level where the air becomes saturated and condensation occurs. Valley fog can also be a form of Radiation Fog where the air condenses in a low lying area. 

What we will deal with primarily at this time of year is known as Advection Fog. Also the result of condensation, advection fog occurs when warm, moist air moves over a cold surface. Say, a surface layer of snow and ice, for example?

Picture from Twitter

As the snow-melt process continues over the next few weeks, we will experience many advection fog events. Many mornings with school delays. Many opportunities to 'use the low beams'. Many days with slow-moving traffic and hard-to-see tail lights. 

If you're not sure, our StormTrack Weather Team will always be on-air with your most up-to-the-minute information.

If the National Weather Service issues a Dense Fog Advisory, we'll be here to tell you.

                                                                                   With maps like these, we can show you the lowest levels of visibility around our region, what you're about to drive into and what you may be driving out of. This is #FogSeason and until the ground and lake temps warm up to match the air, we'll be dealing with this for weeks and months to come. 

Perry's Monument in the fog at Put-In-Bay; Photo Credit @TeachPIB

2015 Spring Outlook

Spring? We aren't so sure winter is ready to give way just yet with more bone chilling temperatures ahead as we turn the calendar into March. But eventually that snow will melt and warmer air will return. We promise.

Below is our spring outlook for the few months ahead. For reminders sake, we predicted a colder than average winter with near to above average snow. Both verified, read here: WINTER OUTLOOK



Temperature: Below average, especially early. 

We can look back to last year to show how likely this forecast is. Anytime there will be a northeast wind, especially early in spring before Lake Erie ice melts, it will be bone chilling. It took until May last spring for temperatures to consistently reach their normal values. That could very well be the case this spring as well. The ice is actually thicker on Lake Erie than last year. 

Precipitation: Near to slightly below normal precipitation.

With an active pattern slated for early March it is likely that old saying will prove true. In like a lion, out like a lamb. While overall rainfall may be below normal, individual heavy rain storms may prove troublesome for local river concerns. See the next section for more details on that. 

Flooding: Significant Flooding Potential.

We use the word 'potential' to describe the spring flood outlook because that is exactly what this winter has built up to. Thick ice on local rivers and deep snow packs are the two main ingredients for dangerous flooding with spring rains just around the corner. Last year ice jams and periods of heavy rain came close to causing major flooding area-wide. This year the potential is just the same. It will take some luck for a slow thaw and dodging of major rain storms the next 1-2 months. Any quick warm-ups or heavy rain storms will need to monitored closely.

Rapidly Changing Weather

This weekend is a grab bag of weather phenom with snow on the radar early Saturday and an eventual dangerously cold situation with our first Wind Chill Warnings of the season. 

Some snow showers will track through the area, especially during the first half of the day. Up to 1" of accumulation possible.

Along with the snow, as of 4am Saturday, the National Weather Service has populated all of NW Ohio and SE Michigan with Wind Chill Advisories and Warnings on top of Winter Weather Advisories that will last into the evening hours Saturday. 

After noon Saturday, the Wind Chill Warning goes into effect for all counties east of I-75 in Northwest Ohio and lasts through 7:00pm Sunday. 

A Wind Chill Warning is issued when a strong wind will combine with cold temperatures to create dangerously cold conditions for exposed skin. 

The wind will make it feel like it is 25 degrees below zero or colder for several hours. Advice from the National Weather Service states that those planning to spend extended periods of time outside should dress warmly and use common sense. If something doesn't feel right, head inside immediately. Frostbite and hypothermia are risks with this combination of cold temperatures and gusty winds. 

This entire pattern has been setting up for days, now. A Polar blast of air swinging in from the Arctic Circle is to blame, and once a pattern like this sets up, it's a tough one to break.

Along this strong polar jet, winds will range between 15-30mph Saturday with temperatures falling rapidly through the afternoon and evening hours. We bottom out tonight with lows 10 degrees below zero. 

Sunday morning will be remarkably cold, and there is no warm-up in sight. High temperatures Sunday will top out near zero degrees and in the lower single digits for the day. Winds die down and the Wind Chill Warning expires at 7pm. 

Another bitterly cold evening Sunday into Monday. Good thing it's Presidents' Day! Otherwise, we'd be tracking major school delays.