November Off To A Cold Start

Through the first 3 weeks of the month, Toledo has experienced the second coldest November on record. Second only to 1976. Those of you that were around here in the late '70s remember how cold it was.

Here is a list of the top 5, coldest and warmest first 3 weeks of November on record:

      COLDEST

1976	33.8
2014	34.2
1951	34.3
1997	35.6
1959	35.8

      WARMEST

1909	49.7
1938	50.3
1975	50.5
1902	52.3
1931	52.4

The Science Behind Road Salt

The winter season comes with many things, including snow, ice, cold, and wind.

A byproduct of the season is the salt that is used to keep us safe on the roads and sidewalks.
But why is salt used?

Loading salt into dump trucks to prepare for the winter season

It's simple science. 

Salt lowers the freezing point of water. 

Ice forms when the­ temperature of pure water reaches 32° F. At that temperature, equal melting and freezing are occurring and the water molecules are in a state of dynamic equilibrium. 

When you add salt, the temperature of equal meting and freezing drops. More simply: The freezing point is lowered. This is called 'freezing point depression'.

There are many applications of this process, most notably, the use of salt on roadways to melt layers of ice and snow during the winter months.

Plows, salt trucks, and other traffic traveling over salted surfaces help to break up icy surfaces

On a roadway, if you sprinkle salt on the ice, the salt penetrates the surface layer, turning it to liquid water. With a salt/water brine solution sitting on top of the remaining layer of ice, a continued breakdown of the frozen material ensues. 

Winter Road Treatment & Snow Removal

Eventually, the salt and resulting brine mixture will break down the entire layer of ice or snow and create more traction on road surfaces. The process is further enhanced by traffic traveling over the salted surfaces, breaking up larger chunks of ice.

Check it out!

Take a look at this time lapse video: 
If you ever watch salt melting ice in real-time, you can see the dissolving process happen right before your eyes. With this example (made with the help of the Imagination Station Toledo), we've sped up that transition. The ice immediately around the grain of salt melts, and the melting eventually spreads out from that point.

According to an article by HowStuffWorks, a 10% salt solution freezes water at 20° F, and a 20% solution freezes at 2° F. Because of this, purity and concentration of the mixture matters. 

For example, NaCl, or rock salt, comes in the form of a larger grain, but consists of the same chemical compound as table salt. The chemical name NaCl represents the two ions of a salt grain: sodium and chlorine.

Rock Salt, also known as NaCl has equal parts Sodium and Chlorine

When used to activate a freezing point depression, NaCl breaks down into two components-- Na & Cl. Those ions are responsible for lowering the freezing point of surface ice and water to roughly 15° F, depending on purity and concentration. It is relatively inexpensive and can be dissolved into a solute to make a brine mixture.

Plows and salt trucks often prime the roads with a brine solution

A brine mixture is often used by salt trucks to prime roads before a measurable snowfall or the development of black ice. 

Brine is a solution of salt dissolved in water. 

The brine serves the purpose of preventing a hard freeze at the surface, by lowering the freezing point from 32° to 20° F, depending on purity and concentration. 

Manager of Toledo Streets, Bridges and Harbor, Jeremy Mikolajczyk, says the City of Toledo is planning on trying a method that includes more brining this year with new procedures in place. The lower cost of the brining process is appealing, and once the salt/water solution is mixed, applying it to the streets is easier, too. Because of the moisture in the solution, the brine tends to stick to road surfaces better than dry salt, as well. 

Labor, materials and maintenance cost ODOT $119 million during the 2013-2014 winter.
It was the most expensive winter season ever. 

Unfortunately, brine is less effective on its own, especially if environmental air temperatures are expected to drop below 20° F. For the coldest part of the winter, the method of brining is not enough. 

Some of the coldest 2013-2014 winter season temperatures range between 1° F to -15°. 

2013-2014 Winter Season:

Date: (High/Low)

January 3rd (11°/-12°)

January 7th (1°/-14°)

January 22nd (10°/-10°)

January 28th (3°/-10°)

Temperatures through the 2013-2014 winter season were too cold for salting the roads

With environmental temperatures near 30° F, a surface brine solute will be effective in melting any developing ice.

However, if brine, alone, will only drop the freezing point of water to 20° F, once the air temperature matches or goes below that point, ice will form and adhere to surfaces. The additional use of NaCl (rock salt) will lower the freezing point of water down to approximately 15° F.


Once air temperatures drop to 15° F, however, local municipalities run into that same problem again. At 15° F, the NaCl salt ions become ineffective, and the melting process stops. Below 15°, you can expect fully frozen surfaces, since the salt cannot lower the freezing point beyond that temperature.

But what if we have another year like the winter of 2013-2014?

The Toledo Express Airport recorded 23 days with temperatures below zero, which rendered salt and brine on the roads ineffective.
With air temperatures far below the freezing point, a typical NaCl salt brine or road coat will be ineffective.
 

So what is the alternative?

Commonly referred to as 'ice melt', an enhanced chemical salt mix can actually be used for a similar price, with better results. The exact chemical compound differs from brand to brand, but ice melt can include a combination of NaCl, MgCl2 (Magnesium Chloride), and CaCl2 (Calcium Chloride).

Cincinnati's salt pile as of Mid-October 2013. 
Officials say it was only 30 percent full. (FOX19)

Due to the variation of the mix, a true freezing depression can range from -2° F to -19° F... a far cry from NaCl alone! While competitively priced, ice melt still has its limitations. 

Over a typical winter season in Ohio, ODOT spreads 630,000 tons of salt-- in 2013-2014, the state used nearly 1 million tons-- over the roadways. At those quantities, price matters. 

A third, more expensive, but even more effective method is pure Calcium Chloride. With Calcium Chloride, or CaCl2, similar to Magnesium Chloride, MgCl2, the compound breaks down into three ions, as opposed to only two ions in NaCl.

Calcium Chloride is less commonly used to melt ice, but it is the most effective. It releases heat as it dissolves, aiding the melting process. This method can be up to 6 times more expensive, but it is also exponentially more effective, melting snow and ice down to -20° F.

Table salt, Rock salt and Ice melt are far inferior to the melting properties of Calcium Chloride.

Regardless of the melting method crews use this winter season, ODOT assures us that they are ready. With a record breaking winter last year, bringing in 23 days with below zero temperatures and over 80" of snow, it would be unlikely that more salt, crews or resources would ever be needed than in the winter of 2013-2014 in Toledo. 

Big Cold and Big Snow!

This won't be a November we soon forget locally or across the nation.

It is very likely the month goes down as a top 10 coldest November in Toledo history. But Tuesday with a high of only 18 and a low of 9, makes it tied for the 5th coldest November day in Toledo history. Those records go back through over 4200 November days. In fact, Tuesday's high was colder than all but ONE day compared to the mild winter of 2012-2013.

And how about that snow near Buffalo? Incredible lake effect snow has been falling to the tune of 3-5" PER HOUR. Compare that to the measly 2.1" total we have in Toledo so far this season (as of Wed AM). Leading to incredible snowfall totals in upstate New York, per the NWS Buffalo office:

...ERIE COUNTY...
   GARDENVILLE           60.0   800 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WEST SENECA           57.0   800 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   ELMA                  51.0   800 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   ORCHARD PARK          48.0   800 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER

...GENESEE COUNTY...
   CORFU                 40.0   800 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   DARIEN                36.0   830 PM 11/18  EMERGENCY MNGR

Compare that 60" snow report to Toledo record shattered snow total from ALL of last winter:

Keep in mind more heavy snow, that will be measured in feet is expected in and around Buffalo the rest of this week.

Credit: Philippe Papin, @pppapin

And the visuals from this storm have been stunning, both from the air and on the ground.

Source: Twitter -- @JamesAFry

According to Pro Foootball Talk: 220,000 tons (440 million pounds) of snow have been removed from the property on which Ralph Wilson Stadium (Buffalo Bills) is located.  With a driving ban in place, players won’t be able to get to work today.

Credit:  Kassie Tamulski

Thankfully the heavy snow has retreated for now from Buffalo, but it will be back.

And on the Great Lakes, water temperatures are running well below normal. Lake Erie is about 4 degrees below normal with ice already forming on the Maumee River.

Coldest November Day in History?

Tuesday will be cold. Very cold. But will it be the coldest day in November history for Toledo? Nope. That distinction belongs to November 24th, 1950. The high that day was only 14 with a low of only 3! Below is a list for the coldest November days on record for Toledo. (Record in Toledo go back to the 1870s) With the current forecast, Tuesday will end up as #5 or #6 on the list.


                  YEAR    MONTH    DAY       HIGH      LOW

	1) 1950	11	24	14	3
	2) 1929	11	30	15	2
	3) 1929	11	29	16	5
	4) 1930	11	27	16	7
	5) 1976	11	29	18	9
	6) 1933	11	15	19	12

                TUESDAY FORECAST:            19           *10 
                           *10 was the low recorded this morning at Toledo Express Airport. 

And no, we aren't the only ones dealing with the cold. Tuesday morning the average temperature across the United States was only 19 degrees! 

November Arctic Outbreak

It's no secret this has been a very chilly November, but our coldest day yet is set to arrive on Tuesday. Highs will struggle to reach 20 degrees with wind chills in the morning below zero! The record Tuesday for the coldest high temperature is 23, a feat we should easily beat on the cold side. And while there is some hope for a brief warm-up Sunday and into Monday next week this is one very cold forecast for November!

So why the cold snap now? The reason can be broken down into one simple weather term: Cross Polar Flow. It's name is exactly what it sounds like. Air from SIBERIA is racing across the arctic and taking direct aim at the midwest. Northwest Ohio and Southeast Michigan included. Watch this video to see how it works: 

And when we plot the past 180 hours at different levels of the atmosphere, it is clear to see that our air originates from a very chilly part of Russia. 

November 16th, 2014 Sunday Night Weather Hangout

At 8:30 pm Sunday Night, Meteorologist Ryan Wichman will host his weekly 'Weather Hangout' on Google+. You can watch the live stream below or watch and interactive LIVE during the hangout here: http://bit.ly/1xuFPuQ

The show takes questions from Ryan's Facebook and Twitter pages to answer and gives a summary of the forecast for the week ahead.If you are on Google +, be sure to add Ryan's page HERE.

A live stream of the show will be offered here, with a video replay shortly to follow after the conclusion.

Monday, November 17th Snow Forecast

It appears likely we will see our first accumulating snowfall of the year for many local communities. Right now it looks like most snow will fall before daybreak on Monday morning, leaving a light shovel for many drives and walks.

Even colder weather than we have experience the past week is expected to follow this snowfall.