At 8:30 pm Sunday Night, Meteorologist Ryan Wichman will host his weekly 'Weather Hangout' on Google+. You can watch the live stream below or watch and interactive LIVE during the hangout here: http://bit.ly/1xuFPuQ
The show takes questions from Ryan's Facebook and Twitter pages to answer and gives a summary of the forecast for the week ahead.If you are on Google +, be sure to add Ryan's page HERE.
A live stream of the show will be offered here, with a video replay shortly to follow after the conclusion.
Sunday, November 16, 2014
Saturday, November 15, 2014
Monday, November 17th Snow Forecast
It appears likely we will see our first accumulating snowfall of the year for many local communities. Right now it looks like most snow will fall before daybreak on Monday morning, leaving a light shovel for many drives and walks.
Even colder weather than we have experience the past week is expected to follow this snowfall.
Even colder weather than we have experience the past week is expected to follow this snowfall.
Wednesday, November 12, 2014
Prolonged Mid-November Chill
No doubt about, the cold season has arrived once again in Northwest Ohio and Southeastern Michigan. Following a chilly summer and downright brutual winter it doesn't quite seem fair for the cold to be back so soon.
Highs over the next 7 days (and longer) are expected to top out in only the 30's for highs. If you think 30's for highs aren't extreme for November you're right. What is different this time will be the length of the cool down and how wide reaching it will be.
Lows over the next week will drop as low as freezing as far south as northern Mexico and the Gulf Coast.
Locally, our latest 7-day forecast for Toledo shows that the cold is not just going to be with us for a couple of days but for at least the next week, likely 10 days or longer.
So, how rare is that for mid-November? Try once a century. Only once, in 1937, has Toledo recorded highs at or below 37 degrees for a week straight.
YEAR NOV DAY HIGH LOW
Highs over the next 7 days (and longer) are expected to top out in only the 30's for highs. If you think 30's for highs aren't extreme for November you're right. What is different this time will be the length of the cool down and how wide reaching it will be.
Lows over the next week will drop as low as freezing as far south as northern Mexico and the Gulf Coast.
So, how rare is that for mid-November? Try once a century. Only once, in 1937, has Toledo recorded highs at or below 37 degrees for a week straight.
YEAR NOV DAY HIGH LOW
| 1937 | 11 | 17 | 35 | 28 |
| 1937 | 11 | 18 | 32 | 26 |
| 1937 | 11 | 19 | 31 | 26 |
| 1937 | 11 | 20 | 26 | 21 |
| 1937 | 11 | 21 | 28 | 18 |
| 1937 | 11 | 22 | 32 | 25 |
| 1937 | 11 | 23 | 35 | 19 |
Never has that streak lasted more than the 7 days. The next week and a half has a serious chance to be the first.
Monday, November 10, 2014
Great Lakes Ice To Start Early
The National Weather Service issued their seasonal outlook for ice on the Great Lakes today. The forecast takes an in-depth look at how long shipping channels will likely be able to stay open this season and the current conditions compared to past seasons. Read the full report for youself here: Great Lakes Ice Forecast
Current Water Temperatures for Lake Erie range from the 40's in the shallow western basin, to the mid 50's in deeper parts of the lake.
Below is a chart for Lake Superior, the largest of the Great Lakes. Notice its average temp is running very chilly compared to many of the past few years.
Current Water Temperatures for Lake Erie range from the 40's in the shallow western basin, to the mid 50's in deeper parts of the lake.
Below is a chart for Lake Superior, the largest of the Great Lakes. Notice its average temp is running very chilly compared to many of the past few years.
According to the report, which is issued out of the NWS Cleveland office, all Great Lakes bouys report water temperatures running below normal:
WATER TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID-LAKE BUOYS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS YEARS: LAKE SUPERIOR WEST 43 46 41 47 44 45 46 45 41 47 CENTRAL 42 44 44 46 46 43 44 42 41 47 EAST 42 MM 41 44 47 44 45 43 42 48 LAKE MICHIGAN NORTH 47 53 45 MM 50 47 49 50 47 54 SOUTH 46 54 48 55 48 48 53 51 48 56 LAKE HURON NORTH 48 49 48 46 49 46 48 49 44 53 SOUTH 49 56 48 54 53 51 52 51 49 55 LAKE ERIE WEST 51 54 45 54 49 53 52 MM 47 56 CENTRAL 53 57 46 55 53 53 54 55 43 58 EAST 52 54 48 55 52 53 54 43 49 57
Sunday, November 9, 2014
November 9th, 2014 Sunday Night Weather Hangout
At 8:30 pm Sunday Night, Meteorologist Ryan Wichman will host his weekly 'Weather Hangout' on Google+.
You can watch the live stream below or watch and interactive LIVE during the hangout here: http://bit.ly/1vkcKDv
The show takes questions from Ryan's Facebook and Twitter pages to answer and gives a summary of the forecast for the week ahead.If you are on Google +, be sure to add Ryan's page HERE.
A live stream of the show will be offered here, with a video replay shortly to follow after the conclusion.
The show takes questions from Ryan's Facebook and Twitter pages to answer and gives a summary of the forecast for the week ahead.If you are on Google +, be sure to add Ryan's page HERE.
A live stream of the show will be offered here, with a video replay shortly to follow after the conclusion.
Saturday, November 8, 2014
Will 2014 Be a Record Cold Year?
You might shutter at the thought of last winter. But, the cold start to the year combined with a cooler than normal summer and the big chill coming our way later this week may be just enough to propel 2014 into the record books.
If Toledo simply holds right at an average temperature during the month of November and December, the year long average would fall to 47.3. Good enough to tie with 1976 with the 7th coldest year in Toledo history (dating back to the early 1870's). Below is a list of top-10 coldest calendar years on record:
So what will it take to make 2014 the coldest year ever record in Toledo? Let's compare the record year of 1875 to where Toledo has been so far this year:
While Toledo is running warmer than the record year of 1875 a very cold airmass is expected the next few weeks, potentially lasting into December.
Time will tell if 2014 ends up #1 but no matter what, it appears a near lock it will be a top 10 cold year in Toledo history.
If Toledo simply holds right at an average temperature during the month of November and December, the year long average would fall to 47.3. Good enough to tie with 1976 with the 7th coldest year in Toledo history (dating back to the early 1870's). Below is a list of top-10 coldest calendar years on record:
 |
| Via NWS Cleveland |
So what will it take to make 2014 the coldest year ever record in Toledo? Let's compare the record year of 1875 to where Toledo has been so far this year:
While Toledo is running warmer than the record year of 1875 a very cold airmass is expected the next few weeks, potentially lasting into December.
 |
| Pic via twitter: @BigJoeBastardi |
Time will tell if 2014 ends up #1 but no matter what, it appears a near lock it will be a top 10 cold year in Toledo history.
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
2014-2015 Winter Outlook
'This will be a terrible winter'.
'It will be worse than last year'.
THINGS TO WATCH FOR:
Trying to predict months in advance is far from an exact science at this point. We all get that. So as we get closer and even into winter here are some of the top wild-cards to watch that may sway our weather one direction or another.
-How quickly the lakes freeze: Last year this happened rather quick and limited the amount of lake effect clouds and snow showers the area saw. An unfrozen Lake Erie can also keep lakeshore communities warmer than inland locations. In two images below we take the two largest Great Lakes and show how quickly water temperatures are already dropping. Already the temperature is lower than that of this time a year ago in Superior and Michigan.
-Drought in the western United States: Until a large pattern shift appears likely, the drought and warm conditions in California and western United States will continue. With this in mind, with high pressure esablished in the western US it is likely an active and chilly pattern will continue for the east.
-Pacific Tropical Storms: Very strong storms near Japan and western Pacific can have a large influence on our weather. The effects are not immediate but develop over the span of days and weeks. A single large storm can and has had the ability to influence global scale patterns.
While winter forecasting in the past can be viewed as little more than throwing a dart at the board there is meaningful science that can help tip the scales one way or another. Here are more link that dive even deeper into the science of winter forecasting. Enjoy.
NWS Detroit Winter Outlook
WSI Winter Blog
Climate Prediction Center Winter Outlook
'It will be worse than last year'.
You've probably heard your own variation of those phrases to sum up forecasts for the upcoming winter. Right?
There is no denying it. Last winter will go down as one of the worst on record for Toledo. It SMASHED all-time snow records and flirted with the unimaginable cold of the last 1970's. So is a repeat really possible? Let's dive into facts, not hype. Winter forecasting is still a VERY difficult science. Just watch this story and information from Meteorologist Robert Shiels:
Although forecasting a season in advance is a difficult task, there are some pre-cursors we can look at to make the best forecast available. Such as global sea temperatures, the position of the jet stream and current snow cover. Here is our forecast:
TEMPERATURE: Below average.
This doesn't mean polar bears will be seen walking down the streets. There will be some fluxuation in temperatures throughout the season.
The key many times to just how bone chilling a winter can get is how quickly snow cover across the northern US becomes established. This will be something to watch closely the next 2 months. Right now there is a significant amount of snow over northern north america and Siberia. While that can be used a signal for a very cold winter ahead, it isn't a perfect method. Take Nov 2011 for example. Lots of snow (in fact, more than at the same time this year) but the winter ended extremely warm.
SNOW: Near to above average.
I think the sweet spot this year is in the 40-55" range. That would be above the seasonal average of 37" but a far cry from the 86" last season. Keep in mind the winter of 2013-2014 broke the all-time snow record by over a foot. A repeat of that seems very unlikely, even if a snowy winter was apparent.
There is no denying it. Last winter will go down as one of the worst on record for Toledo. It SMASHED all-time snow records and flirted with the unimaginable cold of the last 1970's. So is a repeat really possible? Let's dive into facts, not hype. Winter forecasting is still a VERY difficult science. Just watch this story and information from Meteorologist Robert Shiels:
Although forecasting a season in advance is a difficult task, there are some pre-cursors we can look at to make the best forecast available. Such as global sea temperatures, the position of the jet stream and current snow cover. Here is our forecast:
TEMPERATURE: Below average.
This doesn't mean polar bears will be seen walking down the streets. There will be some fluxuation in temperatures throughout the season.
The key many times to just how bone chilling a winter can get is how quickly snow cover across the northern US becomes established. This will be something to watch closely the next 2 months. Right now there is a significant amount of snow over northern north america and Siberia. While that can be used a signal for a very cold winter ahead, it isn't a perfect method. Take Nov 2011 for example. Lots of snow (in fact, more than at the same time this year) but the winter ended extremely warm.
 |
| 2014 Snow Cover |
 |
| 2012 Snow Cover |
SNOW: Near to above average.
I think the sweet spot this year is in the 40-55" range. That would be above the seasonal average of 37" but a far cry from the 86" last season. Keep in mind the winter of 2013-2014 broke the all-time snow record by over a foot. A repeat of that seems very unlikely, even if a snowy winter was apparent.
THINGS TO WATCH FOR:
Trying to predict months in advance is far from an exact science at this point. We all get that. So as we get closer and even into winter here are some of the top wild-cards to watch that may sway our weather one direction or another.
-How quickly the lakes freeze: Last year this happened rather quick and limited the amount of lake effect clouds and snow showers the area saw. An unfrozen Lake Erie can also keep lakeshore communities warmer than inland locations. In two images below we take the two largest Great Lakes and show how quickly water temperatures are already dropping. Already the temperature is lower than that of this time a year ago in Superior and Michigan.
-Drought in the western United States: Until a large pattern shift appears likely, the drought and warm conditions in California and western United States will continue. With this in mind, with high pressure esablished in the western US it is likely an active and chilly pattern will continue for the east.
While winter forecasting in the past can be viewed as little more than throwing a dart at the board there is meaningful science that can help tip the scales one way or another. Here are more link that dive even deeper into the science of winter forecasting. Enjoy.
NWS Detroit Winter Outlook
WSI Winter Blog
Climate Prediction Center Winter Outlook
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)