Prolonged Mid-November Chill

No doubt about, the cold season has arrived once again in Northwest Ohio and Southeastern Michigan. Following a chilly summer and downright brutual winter it doesn't quite seem fair for the cold to be back so soon.

Highs over the next 7 days (and longer) are expected to top out in only the 30's for highs. If you think 30's for highs aren't extreme for November you're right. What is different this time will be the length of the cool down and how wide reaching it will be.

Lows over the next week will drop as low as freezing as far south as northern Mexico and the Gulf Coast.

Locally, our latest 7-day forecast for Toledo shows that the cold is not just going to be with us for a couple of days but for at least the next week, likely 10 days or longer.

So, how rare is that for mid-November? Try once a century. Only once, in 1937, has Toledo recorded highs at or below 37 degrees for a week straight.

   YEAR     NOV        DAY       HIGH      LOW  

1937	11	17	35	28
1937	11	18	32	26
1937	11	19	31	26
1937	11	20	26	21
1937	11	21	28	18
1937	11	22	32	25
1937	11	23	35	19

Never has that streak lasted more than the 7 days. The next week and a half has a serious chance to be the first. 

Great Lakes Ice To Start Early

The National Weather Service issued their seasonal outlook for ice on the Great Lakes today. The forecast takes an in-depth look at how long shipping channels will likely be able to stay open this season and the current conditions compared to past seasons. Read the full report for youself here: Great Lakes Ice Forecast

Current Water Temperatures for Lake Erie range from the 40's in the shallow western basin, to the mid 50's in deeper parts of the lake.

Below is a chart for Lake Superior, the largest of the Great Lakes. Notice its average temp is running very chilly compared to many of the past few years.

According to the report, which is issued out of the NWS Cleveland office, all Great Lakes bouys report water temperatures running below normal: 

WATER TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID-LAKE BUOYS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
YEARS:

LAKE SUPERIOR
WEST              43   46   41   47   44   45   46   45   41     47
CENTRAL           42   44   44   46   46   43   44   42   41     47
EAST              42   MM   41   44   47   44   45   43   42     48

LAKE MICHIGAN
  NORTH           47   53   45   MM   50   47   49   50   47     54
  SOUTH           46   54   48   55   48   48   53   51   48     56

LAKE HURON
  NORTH           48   49   48   46   49   46   48   49   44     53
  SOUTH           49   56   48   54   53   51   52   51   49     55

LAKE ERIE
  WEST            51   54   45   54   49   53   52   MM   47     56
  CENTRAL         53   57   46   55   53   53   54   55   43     58
  EAST            52   54   48   55   52   53   54   43   49     57

November 9th, 2014 Sunday Night Weather Hangout

At 8:30 pm Sunday Night, Meteorologist Ryan Wichman will host his weekly 'Weather Hangout' on Google+. You can watch the live stream below or watch and interactive LIVE during the hangout here: http://bit.ly/1vkcKDv

The show takes questions from Ryan's Facebook and Twitter pages to answer and gives a summary of the forecast for the week ahead.If you are on Google +, be sure to add Ryan's page HERE.

A live stream of the show will be offered here, with a video replay shortly to follow after the conclusion.


 

Will 2014 Be a Record Cold Year?

You might shutter at the thought of last winter. But, the cold start to the year combined with a cooler than normal summer and the big chill coming our way later this week may be just enough to propel 2014 into the record books.

If Toledo simply holds right at an average temperature during the month of November and December, the year long average would fall to 47.3. Good enough to tie with 1976 with the 7th coldest year in Toledo history (dating back to the early 1870's). Below is a list of top-10 coldest calendar years on record:

Via NWS Cleveland

So what will it take to make 2014 the coldest year ever record in Toledo? Let's compare the record year of 1875 to where Toledo has been so far this year:

While Toledo is running warmer than the record year of 1875 a very cold airmass is expected the next few weeks, potentially lasting into December.

Pic via twitter: @BigJoeBastardi

Time will tell if 2014 ends up #1 but no matter what, it appears a near lock it will be a top 10 cold year in Toledo history.

2014-2015 Winter Outlook

'This will be a terrible winter'.

'It will be worse than last year'.

You've probably heard your own variation of those phrases to sum up forecasts for the upcoming winter. Right?

There is no denying it. Last winter will go down as one of the worst on record for Toledo. It SMASHED all-time snow records and flirted with the unimaginable cold of the last 1970's. So is a repeat really possible? Let's dive into facts, not hype. Winter forecasting is still a VERY difficult science. Just watch this story and information from Meteorologist Robert Shiels:

Although forecasting a season in advance is a difficult task, there are some pre-cursors we can look at to make the best forecast available. Such as global sea temperatures, the position of the jet stream and current snow cover. Here is our forecast:

TEMPERATURE: Below average.

This doesn't mean polar bears will be seen walking down the streets. There will be some fluxuation in temperatures throughout the season.

The key many times to just how bone chilling a winter can get is how quickly snow cover across the northern US becomes established. This will be something to watch closely the next 2 months. Right now there is a significant amount of snow over northern north america and Siberia. While that can be used a signal for a very cold winter ahead, it isn't a perfect method. Take Nov 2011 for example. Lots of snow (in fact, more than at the same time this year) but the winter ended extremely warm.

2014 Snow Cover

2012 Snow Cover

SNOW: Near to above average.

I think the sweet spot this year is in the 40-55" range. That would be above the seasonal average of 37" but a far cry from the 86" last season. Keep in mind the winter of 2013-2014 broke the all-time snow record by over a foot. A repeat of that seems very unlikely, even if a snowy winter was apparent. 

Follow Meteorologist Ryan Wichman all season for the latest storm updates:
FACEBOOK
TWITTER

THINGS TO WATCH FOR:

Trying to predict months in advance is far from an exact science at this point. We all get that. So as we get closer and even into winter here are some of the top wild-cards to watch that may sway our weather one direction or another.

-How quickly the lakes freeze: Last year this happened rather quick and limited the amount of lake effect clouds and snow showers the area saw. An unfrozen Lake Erie can also keep lakeshore communities warmer than inland locations. In two images below we take the two largest Great Lakes and show how quickly water temperatures are already dropping. Already the temperature is lower than that of this time a year ago in Superior and Michigan. 

-Drought in the western United States: Until a large pattern shift appears likely, the drought and warm conditions in California and western United States will continue. With this in mind, with high pressure esablished in the western US it is likely an active and chilly pattern will continue for the east.

-Pacific Tropical Storms: Very strong storms near Japan and western Pacific can have a large influence on our weather. The effects are not immediate but develop over the span of days and weeks. A single large storm can and has had the ability to influence global scale patterns.



While winter forecasting in the past can be viewed as little more than throwing a dart at the board there is meaningful science that can help tip the scales one way or another. Here are more link that dive even deeper into the science of winter forecasting. Enjoy.


NWS Detroit Winter Outlook
WSI Winter Blog
Climate Prediction Center Winter Outlook

Partial Solar Eclipse

Though we won't have a picture perfect view in Northwest Ohio, residents in the Toledo area should still get a glimpse of the Solar Eclipse on October 23rd.

Thursday's partial solar eclipse will occur just before sunset for our region. Beginning at 5:00pm EDT, the moon will move between the path of the sun and the Earth, slightly obstructing our view of the large star.

Partial Solar Eclipse; Moon bisects the direct path from Earth to Sun.

Due to the timing for Northwest Ohio, only 10% of the sun will be obscured, but as much as 60% of the sun will be obscured for viewers in Alaska who are able to catch the sight before sunset.

Different phases of the partial solar eclipse as seen across the country.

Because this is only a partial eclipse, the sun will momentarily appear crescent-shaped. The moon's shadow will cast off a percentage of the sun's glow, seemingly taking a bite out of the orb!

Partial Solar Eclipse

This stellar treat will be visible by most people in North America, with the exception of the east coast due to the timing of Thursday's sunset.

The best time to look for the eclipse will be between 6:00-6:30pm. Sunset occurs at exactly 6:40pm.

A friendly reminder: Don't look directly at the sun.. or into a mirror! Eye damage from looking at the sun can occur with just one glance. Instead, use a pinhole device, or simply make your own using a sheet of paper.

Full "Blood Moon" and Total Lunar Eclipse Tonight!

The peak of the fall color season is nearing and the leaves are dripping with color.  Now the full "Blood Moon" or Hunter's Moon will paint the nigh sky with more color!  Tonight's full moon -- the first after the Harvest Moon -- will have a orange, rusty or reddish appearance.  

Courtesy NASA:  Full "Blood Moon"

In addition a Total Lunar Eclipse will happen tomorrow morning!  And yes I expect it to be visible in our area! By tomorrow morning the full moon and eclipse with be in the southwest sky headed toward the westerly horizon as morning approaches.  The beginning of the eclipse starts at 5:15 AM sharp.  The moon will enter into Total Eclipse by 6:25 AM

Angle of ecliptic – or path of the moon 

Who will see the October 7-8 total lunar eclipse? The October 2014 full moon passes directly through Earth’s dark (umbral) shadow. The total part of the October 8 eclipse lasts nearly 1 hour. A partial umbral eclipse precedes totality by about one hour and 10 minutes, and follows totality by about the same period of time, so the moon takes about 3 and 1/3 hours to completely sweep through the Earth’s dark shadow.  (Excerpt from earthsky.org)

Why the orange, rusty or reddish tint?  It is due to the the scattering of light through the earths atmosphere especially around sunset and sunrise.  The red and orange pigments are "scattered" from the spectrum and therefore become visible color that our eyes can see.

Full Hunter's Moon

TIMES TO REMEMBER! 

 Eastern Daylight Time: Wednesday Morning (October 8, 2014)

Total eclipse begins: 6:25 a.m. EDT

Greatest eclipse: 6:55 a.m. EDT

Total eclipse ends: 7:24 a.m. EDT

~Meteorologist Chris Vickers