Could pattern mean a May 4th Severe Weather Outbreak?

Okay, I need to start this post by saying this is not a forecast. Simply a pattern that I have recognized so far this year. Starting on February 1st, severe weather and 1 reported tornado struck the deep south. This was by no-means an outbreak, but severe weather none the less in early Frebruary.

One month and one day later was the largest March Tornado outbreaks in recent memory.

One month and one day later a significant tornado outbreak hit the Dallas metro head on.

If this trend continues, could May 4th be the next big tornado outbreak of the 2012 season?


Of course weather models are not useful this far in advance and the likelyhood that this pattern would continue exactly is low. But early May has played host to some big tornado days, particular in the state of Oklahoma. Only time will tell but if the first two months of the year have been an indication, this will be a long year for severe weather forecasters.

Warmest March On Record

It wasn't even a question of if, but by how much would we shatter the record for the warmest March on record.  With the month now complete the average monthly temperature was +13.3 degrees above normal and for the first time ever averaged above 50 degrees. 



The month also included  six new daily record highs.  Two days in which we saw the warmest temperature ( 85 degrees) ever in the month of March.  And a record breaking nine consecutive days above 70 degrees (March 14-22)! 

Toledo was not alone in this warmth.  An astounding 7,700 record highs were broken across the country with over 80 other cities recording the warmest month of March on record including the following cities in Ohio:

Cleveland

Youngstown

Mansfield

Columbus

Cincinnati

 How about my prediction for the rest of spring?  Look for near normal temperatures for April, but a cooler than normal May.  I'll call this the inevitable balance of nature!

Severe Weather Myth: Tornadoes can't cross Rivers

One single river cuts through all of northwest Ohio, the Maumee. This makes it an easy target for many local severe weather myths. On average, our area only averages 4 tornadoes per year. That makes it easy to forget storms that may have happened 20-30 years ago and become complacent.


Tornado crossing the Mississippi Tornado in 2011


The myth stems from how formidable rivers can seem to us. We have to build bridges, take boats or simple go around these natural features. The fact of the matter is – a storm is not affected by a river -- If anything a river can actually enhance a storm (albeit very rarely and to a small scale).


NW Ohio Tornado History 1950-2010

If you live near a river, don’t feel there is a special dome of protect for you. Everyone anywhere can be hit by severe weather and tornadoes.

VIDEO: Tornado crossing a large river in Springfield, Mass. -- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NchH55X9Dc8

Severe Weather Myths: Tornadoes Avoid Valleys

Severe Weather Myth: A tornado can’t hit my town because it sits in a valley



This is one of the most dangerous severe weather myths I have heard, especially here in northwest Ohio. A lot of people honestly believe it. First…let me bust this myth by showing this video of a tornado moving through mountains and valley in Tennessee.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEr2lCnQcow

Although the video has proven tornadoes do cross valleys, let’s continue on the assumption that MAYBE valleys do change the path of a storm. Below is a picture from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources that shows the topography (height above sea level) of Ohio. Notice that Northwest Ohio is certainly the lowest part of Ohio but there are no significant valleys to affect storms. Severe storms that reach 40-50 thousand feet into the atmosphere will not be deterred in anyway by a 50-100 foot change in elevation on the ground.

Severe Weather Awareness Week --Lightning Safety

Lightning can be attributed to around 90 deaths and almost 300 injuries each year!   Most of these are preventable due to some commons sense safety guidelines:



Remember if you are close enough to hear thunder you are in danger of being struck by lightning.   Here is a fun (But be safe...while indoors of course!) way to estimate how far away a lightning strike is:



 

"Flash to Bang"

 

You can estimate the distance to a thunderstorm using the "Flash to Bang" (time from seeing lightning until your hear thunder) by counting the seconds between the lightning "flash" and the "bang" of thunder. Each five seconds equals one mile. If you count 15 seconds, the flash was 3 miles away and you know that you are in a high danger zone. Six miles is still in the high danger zone.

 

Severe Weather Myths: Overpasses

Severe Weather Myth: An Overpass is a safe place to hide from a tornado.

A famous video (click HERE to view) from the early 90s is largely to blame for this myth. The theory is that if you’re driving along the highway and find yourself in the direct path of a tornado, the best place to hide is under an overpass. Well it turns out that is actually one of the worst places to be. The bridge funnels the air currents and acts like a wind tunnel, actually increasing the wind speeds!

In the video a film crew, along with a family, hide under the girders for protection. Since this clip has been released others have attempted the same protective course of action, only to end in a much more tragic fashion. In the video, although it looks like the tornado went directly overhead, it did not. Barely missing the family/film crew and sparing them from the strongest winds.  

So what SHOULD you do if you come up to a tornado in the road? It’s a good question without a single answer. Many times you will be able to simply stop or speed away from the storm. If that is not the case, a next best step is to get out of your car and hide as low as possible in a ditch. Keep in mind you want to avoid a flooded ditch and by exiting your car, you become exposed to flying debris, hail, etc. If this moment happens to you, there is no guidebook, just instincts. But one thing is for sure, don’t use overpasses to try and protect yourself.

Weather Radio Programming Schedule

The StormTrack 11 weather radio programming schedule has just been released. We will be at the following Kroger locations to sell and program weather radios for your specific county. 

April 5 -- Jackman and Laskey

April 10 -- Woodville road

April 14 ^{-- Lambertville}

April 18 -- Waterville

April 24 -- Port Clinton

April 26 -- Suder Ave
We program the radio so it will only alert you when you specifically are under the gun for severe weather. A weather radio is one of the best tools anyone can have to be alerted any time of anyday. Want more information? Check out this story: http://www.wtol.com/global/Story.asp?s=12681658 (Please ignore the dates at the bottom)