Does a warm March mean a hot summer?

With 70s and even 80s on the 7-day forecast, the question I have been fielding more and more this week: "If it's this warm now, are we in for a hot summer?"

The answer is, how warm it is right now really doesn't tell us anything about how warm or cold we will be months down the road.

For the past 120 years, records have been kept in Toledo and warmer than average months earlier in the year have shown little to no connection to how warm the rest of the year will be. While the science of meteorology is rapidly advancing we still do not have a great understanding for long term forecasting (3-6months+). There are simply too many factors and our computing powers simply aren't fast enough yet for the complex equations to be run.

This winter was a great example of our long range forecasting downfalls as a meteorology community.





 Lets take this a week or two at a time. Enjoy the warmth and sun, mother nature doesn't spoil us too often.

The Largest March Tornado Outbreak?

So far the National Weather Service has confirmed 45 tornadoes from Friday’s outbreak; the SPC has 121 filtered tornado reports listed on their website as of March 6^th. There is still a question as to the exact number of strong to violent tornadoes but the total will likely end up in the mid 20s. The strongest of these tornadoes is the Henryville, EF4.
While damage surveys are still on-going on reported tornado paths in parts of the Midwest and Deep South, the question has been thrown out: Was this the largest March tornado outbreak in U.S. history?

The answer, yes and no.

In recent memory March 9, 2006 was a significant severe weather day across the central plains. 54 total tornadoes touched down, 22 F2 rating or stronger. It is likely that the March 2^nd, 2012 outbreak will top these numbers.



A likely bigger and more wide reaching event occurred on Palm Sunday 1920. The March 28^th event spawned 38 significant (F2+) Tornadoes. Since weaker tornadoes were not as well documented in the early 20^th century a total tornado count cannot be known. Simply based on the significant tornado count, it is not likely this most recent outbreak will top 1920.

The big question becomes….is there really more severe weather occurring or is out knowledge and awareness increasing to the point of catching every storm?

Over the past few decades storm reports have increased due to an increasing population density and undoubtedly storm chasers. Tornadoes are reported and recorded that simple would not have been seen 10 years ago without these eyes on the storm.

No matter what the exact numbers end up being, this was a devastating tornado outbreak and we wish a speedy recovery for those communities affected.

What the Hail?

 

No that wasn’t hail you saw Sunday Afternoon. It’s called ‘Graupel’. It forms in very similar ways to hail in a thunderstorm but in a much colder environment.

One of the best things you can learn about the weather is: Warm air rises. I know it didn’t feel warm today, but our high of 36 is balmy compared to single digits just a few thousand feet above our heads. As this ‘warm’ at the surface rises, water droplets form. First creating clouds, then super cooled water droplets. The water droplets stay in a liquid form despite actually being colder than freezing. These super cooled water droplets collide with falling snowflakes and form the graupel you saw today!

 

So how do you tell the difference between hail and graupel?

-Hail forms during spring and summertime thunderstorms and is very hard. Like an ice cube.

-Graupel typically forms during heavy snow/wintery mixes and easily falls apart in your hand.

 

A Taste of Winter

The bite of winter has returned, mainly with respect to strong winds and bitter cold wind chills, but light snow and blowing snow did coat the landscape with some snow.  Driving in conditions like this still apparently still remain a mystery to some motorist as accidents and spin-outs seemed to be around every corner.  That's another issue. 

Total snow accumulations for many areas were meek (1-2") with much of that already blown to Youngstown by today's strong winds.  (Joking of course)  However a few areas did experience a nice winter blast.  Parts of Ottawa, Sandusky, Seneca, Erie and Huron counties were blasted with lake effect snow that blanketed the area with 2-4" or more by mid day on Friday.  Here is a radar image from 6 AM Friday morning.  Notice the lake effect snow band over lake Erie, which moved onshore in a southerly direction.  Here is the cool part about this.  A lake Huron connection was established in this very specific wind direction orientation which allowed an organized lake effect snow bank with heavier embedded snow squalls to develop off of lake Huron and intensify over lake Erie and then push onshore into areas east of Toledo.  Lake effect connections between two separate Great Lakes are generally rare and even more uncommon for them to impact our area.



The result through mid morning on Friday was an accumulation of 2-4" over Erie an Huron counties. 

Where is the Snow!?

It's been a very mild start to the new year, and to no surprise there is no snow to be found across our area.  As we head into the middle of January, that's unusual.  The lack of Arctic air into the United States has been a dominant theme.  In fact, only 14% of the country has snow cover at this point in the month.  (If you follow my previous posts, this is due to a positive phase of the AO or Arctic Oscillation).  The result a mild beginning to January:



The warm weather and lack of snow has has some shelving the snow skis and reaching for the golf clubs.  Measured snow for Toledo so far this season has been 5.2" which is -7.2" below normal.  Toledo is not alone take a look at large cities across the lower Great Lakes that are suffering from huge snowfall deficits so far this season:



The average snowfall for a winter in Toledo is around 37".

Lower Heating Bills?

Reach into the mail box the next couple of weeks, grab the bill you see to heat your home and hold your breath...but you may be in line for a pleasant surprise.  Heating bills up to this point in the year are likely to be dramatically less compared to this point last year.  After a very harsh December of 2010, this past December was very mild.  Here's the difference:



The most recent average temperature of 35.1° for December of 2011  was an astounding 10.5° warmer than the previous December of 2010 which averaged 24.6°.

Official 2011 Precipitation Record

It was the wettest year on record-- officially broken in late December--and it pushed Toledo nearly 1" above the previous record set back in 1950. 



 Highlights of the past year include:

Second wettest April on Record (6.33")

Ninth wettest May on Record ( 5.88")

Third driest June on Record ( 0.51")

Wettest November on Record (7.14")

 

 Toledo was just one of several dozen cities across the Great Lakes an North East to set all time precipitation records in 2011.