First Freezing Temperatures?

So far high temperatures this month have been well above average, but, there are increasing signs that this will change significantly next week.

Q: How cold will it get?

Right now most indications show we will be flirting with the 32 degree mark sometime in the WED to THUR timeframe, overnight. Highs will still likely reach the 40s or 50s.

Q: Will it snow?

It is not out of the question in some lake effect prone areas to the east of Cleveland or against eastern shore of Lake Michigan to see some of the first wet flakes of the year.

[caption id="attachment_2363" align="alignnone" width="300" caption="No need to panic about THIS type of snow just yet."][/caption]

Q: Why are we expecting a cool down?

An area of low pressure will develop somewhere in the eastern Great Lakes, into the Northeast. This alone will drive colder, canadian air south into our area. In addition, the winds further north look to line up straight from the arctic circle as well. This would create the perfect scenario, (spring, winter, or fall) for much cooler temperatures.

 

[caption id="attachment_2358" align="alignnone" width="300" caption="Cold Air diving south next week (via the ECMWF european model)Surface weather chart for the middle of next week. High pressure west and low pressure each will funnel cold air south."][/caption]

 

[caption id="attachment_2359" align="alignnone" width="300" caption="Surface weather chart for the middle of next week. High pressure west and low pressure each will funnel cold air south."][/caption]

Q: So do I need get out my winter coats, boots, hats, and gloves!?

The winter coat, probably. But right now it appears highs should still rise into the 40s or even 50s during the day. So no polar bears will be roaming the streets. Yet.

[caption id="attachment_2357" align="alignnone" width="300" caption="Polar Bears Crystal, Marty and Nan at the Toledo Zoo will enjoy this weather!"][/caption]

Q: Why not just make a 14 day forecast if you can tell it will cool down so far ahead?

Typically, when such a large air mass is forecasted by the models to move south. (Or vis versa with a large warm-up) We can pick up on the large scale details quickly. However, when we make a forecast beyond 7-day extended forecasts we must keep in mind that even minor changes over the next few days can have big impacts 8,9 or 10 days down the road. That's why right now we are keeping an eye on the very real possibility for below freezing temperatures next week but it is certainly not a slam dunk at this point. What we can say with more certainty is our time for back-to-back 80 degree days has passed for 2011.

Texan Drought Remedy

Folks in Texas are sighing with relief. After a VERY dry summer, showers are passing over the region, bringing inches upon inches of rain.



The soaking across the state, and many part of Oklahoma is breaking records. In San Angelo, before this event, rainfall totals for the year were 12.11'' below average -- a severe defecit. Yesterday alone, 2.56'' fell, breaking the record of 1.06'' set back in 1957 by more than half! Not only that, but over the course of the summer, Texans only saw 2.43'' of rain, TOTAL! So this one event lapsed the entire summer's rainfall amounts.

While flooding is still a concern (higher rates of rain over dry land are perfect ingredidents for floods), drought conditions would have been a bigger concern had these showers not arrived.

Friday Night Football!

Great night for football!  Clear, calm and turning cooler after sunset this evening.  Enjoy the beautiful fall evening!

This Upcoming Winter: Taken with a grain of salt

Accuweather has released their seasonal outlooks for this upcoming winter and it doesn't look good. After a brief discussion with a few colleagues, I've found that typical winter weather for our region (SE Michigan/NW Ohio) can have a very wide range -- spanning from snow showers in Hillsdale/Lenawee counties, to mixed precip. anywhere between Adrian and Perrysburg, and rain for folks south of Findlay. Of course this isn't true for every winter weather event, but keeping that in mind, we can look at these images with a bit of speculation and local knowledge.



According to Accuweather, areas of lower Michigan, the entire Great Lakes, and especially in Chicago can expect to see a particularly harsh winter. Lucky for us, we fall within a region that is only occasionally touched by heavy lake effect events (notice the areas of light blue), however, while we may dodge some heavier snow, I don't believe we can escape the cold.

Long range meteorologists are calling this an 'exceptional' winter, suggesting that some residents may pick up and move after the fact! All jokes aside, there is a certain amount of truth we can take from this forecast, while still being reasonable.

The presence of a La Niña weather pattern may also enhance the chance for some added severe weather. Earlier in the year, La Niña contributed to extreme weather around the globe, and more locally, the weather pattern helped provide extra snowfall during winter and springtime flooding. Now that La Niña has re-emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean, it is forecast to gradually strengthen and continue into winter, enhancing the chance for some similar events.



A wider view of the map shows the Dakotas and the Great Lakes region under the 'Worst of winter cold & snow'. Yikes! The National Weather Service will release their seasonal outlook in mid-October.

Weekend Fall Forecast

It's my favorite time of the year.  Honeycrisp apples, apple cider, pumpkin doughnuts, applebutter are just a few of my favorite things.  It's also a great time to visit many of our local communities with fall festivals.  Here are a few going on this weekend:

Appleumpkin Fest --Tecumseh, MI



Oktoberfest -- Put-In-Bay, OH



Applebutter Fest-- Grand Rapids, OH

Peak Fall Colors

With dry and sunny weather all week, be prepared for the fall color to sprout out!  Our peak colors will arrive in the middle of October.

 

September Rainfall

Septermber of 2011 tied for the 5th wettest September on record.  Enough with the rain already, right?  Looks like early October will trend toward a much warmer and drier pattern.