Colder trend ahead

After temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal Sunday, the week ahead will feature a downslide in temperatures.  Highs will struggle to hit 30° by the middle of the week. 

Normal high is around freezing, and normal low is in the mid teens.

Major storm out west

Repeated storms out in the western US have continued to produce heavy rain and snow, along with strong winds and mudslides.  Different chunks of energy have travelled across the country, causing tornadoes in the southern US.

The main part of this storm will move through the area Sunday.  We will not see violent weather, but we will receive steady rainfall during the day.  Accumulations of 1/2 to 3/4" of rainfall are possible by Sunday night.

We will also see much warmer temperatures...well into the 40s Sunday.  The rain and warmer temps combined may cause some issues on area rivers via ice jams.

Tornadoes In California

An active jet stream has been sending a series of storms into the western US.  One of these storms pounded California today with up to 1.5" inches of rain, along with snow in the mountains.  Thunderstorms produced 60+ mph wind gusts.  Tornado warnings were issued near Los Angeles and Santa Barbara, where funnels were spotted. (Click here for a list of storm reports.)

Additional rain will continue out west, which will create mudslides.  Various wildfires in the past few years have left a lot of land void of ground cover.  Heavy rainfall will cause soils to wash down hills very easily.

The energy from this storm, in a greatly diminished form, will affect our area Sunday.  With temperatures in the 40s, we will see occasional showers Sunday afternoon and evening.

Fog and Freezing Fog

MONDAY EVENING UPDATE:

Our stagnant pattern continues.  After a cloudy day today, more fog will be around tonight.  With temps in the upper 20s, this will create areas of freezing fog where fog persists.

SUNDAY NIGHT POST:

Another round of fog tonight and into Monday morning.  Abundant amounts of moisture are trapped in the lowest layer of the atmosphere near the surface due to warmer temperatures melting snow cover on the ground.  This additional moisture is being trapped close to the ground by a strong temperature inversion at about 1,000 ft. 

The result is dense foggy nights and mornings.  This has curved and limited high temperatures allowing them to only reach the low and middle 30s.  Dense fog and freezing fog advisories are in effect through Monday morning.  Temperatures are expected to remain below freezing allowing the water vapor from the fog  become ice on surfaces that are below freezing.  This includes untreated road surfaces and especially overpasses.  Drive carefully.

Hurricane hunter planes used in winter

 

NOAA’s (National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration) Gulfstream IV aircraft, known for investigating hurricanes, will begin flying over the North Pacific Ocean to fill gaps in atmospheric observations, which will enhance forecasts of winter storms for the entire North American continent through improved computer modeling.

The highly specialized twin turbofan jet will be stationed at Yokota Air Force Base in Japan through February before repositioning to Honolulu in March. From these locations, the aircraft will be tasked by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction — a division of NOAA’s National Weather Service — to fly into data sparse regions to collect information such as wind speed and direction, pressure, temperature and humidity. This data will be sent via satellite to global operational weather forecasting centers — and fed into sophisticated computer forecast models.

 “These flights will help us better observe and understand the current state of the atmosphere over the Pacific, where most of North America’s weather originates, in order to better predict future conditions across the U.S. and Canada three to six days in advance,” said Louis Uccellini, Ph.D., director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction in Camp Springs, Md.

 These computer model improvements will play an essential role in meteorological support for the Winter Olympics in Vancouver in addition to more precise precipitation forecasts along the U.S. West Coast and points further east.

 NOAA incorporated the Japan-based missions into its annual Winter Storms Reconnaissance program in early 2009 — flying 332 flight hours and logging miles equivalent to circling the Earth five times. Prior to 2009, missions were flown from Alaska, Hawaii and the U.S. West Coast. By expanding the reach across the International Date Line to Japan, NOAA is essentially pushing farther upstream to observe areas of interest with greater lead times.

 These missions showed significant positive impact to global numerical weather prediction models, increasing both accuracy and lead times for high-impact weather events.  

The high altitude, high speed NOAA Gulfstream IV is based at the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center, located at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Fla.

Mild trend will continue for awhile

High temperatures will continue into the mid & upper 30s for the extended forecast, with some lower 40s possible in some areas.  Computer models show no major change in this new pattern for at least the next week or so.  The milder trend looks like it will hold through next weekend.

The snow cover from recent events will thwart some of the initial warming.  If we didn't have any snow cover or cold air hugging the surface, we would easily jump through the 40s and 50s during this period.

Temps will remain well above the normal high/low of 31° / 16°

Snow Stats Updated

Toledo Express Airport:

January:    6.9"     (3.5 inches above normal for this point in the month)

Season:    13.9"     (0.6 inches below normal)

January is normally our snowiest month, producing an average of 11".  Milder temps for the next week or two may keep accumulation potentials down a bit.