Thanksgiving Day will be warm and dry.
The sky will cloud over with highs in the 50s.
You can expect south-southwest winds increasing to 10-20mph.
Monday, November 23, 2015
Friday, November 20, 2015
SATURDAY - ALERT DAY FOR WINTRY WEATHER
By late Saturday night snowfall amounts may reach 1-3" on a line from Defiance through the Toledo Metro Area and points north. This will start out as a wet rain/snow mix by early afternoon, changing to all snow past sunset. The biggest travel concern will be bridges and overpasses Saturday night as temperatures drop below freezing.
At the onset of precipitation surface temperatures will be above freezing. You can expect most if not all of the snow to melt on impact in the late morning/early afternoon.
Precipitation is most likely to pick up in the Toledo Area in the early afternoon.
Rain/snow mix will change to all snow in the Toledo Area near sunset.
This means the most likely time for accumulating snow is between 6:00 PM and 10:00 PM.
Travel conditions will be tougher across lower Michigan. Any travel north of I-94 can expect to see heavier snow accumulations Saturday afternoon/evening.
Robert Shiels WTOL
ALERT: Snow Saturday
WHAT WE'RE TRACKING
Snowfall looming in the forecast Saturday brings:
WINTER WEATHER TIMELINE
Accumulation amounts range from <1" to +4" depending on location. Greatest accumulations will occur north and west of Toledo, mainly in parts of SE Michigan.
Forecasting accumulating snowfall is one of the biggest challenges a meteorologist faces, but the First Alert Weather Team is up for it! Because several of our computer models disagree, it's our job to analyse and interpret at a deeper level.
Snowfall looming in the forecast Saturday brings:
- Our 1st accumulation of the season
- Low visibility
- Slick roadways
As of 12:00pm Friday, here is the most up to date forecast using the data available to us:
This band of wintry weather is all about location, location, location. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Hillsdale, Lenawee and Monroe counties in Michigan. These three counties are expected to be hit with the largest accumulations in our entire viewing area.
The Winter Storm Watch is in effect late Friday evening until 9pm Saturday. Potential for significant accumulations leads to difficult travel conditions.
WINTER WEATHER TIMELINE
FRIDAY EVENING: Increasing cloud cover, chilly, dry. We'll experience a strong wind chill factor during Big Board Football games and an incredibly cold setting before snow showers arrive.
SATURDAY MORNING: A few flurries to begin the day. Temperatures rising above the freezing point into the early afternoon. Cloudy skies, few passing showers.
Rain with snow mixing in will turn primarily to wet, slushy snowfall by dinnertime.
From 4-7pm, the greatest accumulation of snow will occur across the area.
Accumulation amounts range from <1" to +4" depending on location. Greatest accumulations will occur north and west of Toledo, mainly in parts of SE Michigan.
Preparation, as with any band of inclement weather, is key. Download our First Alert Weather App and tune in to WTOL 11 all weekend long for updates.
Thursday, November 19, 2015
A TASTE OF WINTRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY
6:00 AM: Low pressure area moving into Illinois.
A heavy, wet snow is likely in Chicago first thing Saturday morning.
Noon: A chance of rain/snow will spread into our viewing area by midday.
Temperatures will be above freezing at this time.
Any snow that falls will melt on impact through the afternoon.
Mid-Michigan: an accumulating, slushy snow is most likely in places like
Kalamazoo, Grand Rapids, Lansing and Flint.
6:00 PM: After sunset minor accumulations of snow will be possible in
northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan.
The risk of slippery road surfaces will increase into Saturday night.
Be sure to check back for updates.
This forecast issued at 5:00 PM Thursday.
Robert Shiels WTOL
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
Gusty Winds Wednesday
Morning:
You can expect some sunshine with southerly winds 10-20mph.
Temperatures will climb quickly into the mid 60s by the lunch hour.
Early afternoon:
A line of showers will move through from west to east.
Winds along this line will gust to over 35mph.
The line of showers is most likely to arrive in Toledo between 1PM-4PM.
Highs in the upper 60s Wednesday will come right around 1:00 PM.
-Robert Shiels WTOL
Monday, November 16, 2015
SNOW IN NOVEMBER?
SNOW IN NOVEMBER?
It has been so mild lately it has many wondering "will there be any snow this month?"
The fact is it is common to get through November with no measurable snow.
The normal snowfall amount for November is about 2".
In the last five years we have had only a trace of snow twice, 2012 and 2010.
The record for the month is 18" set in 1966.
The winter of 1966-67 is currently 5th on the list for most snow with 61".
Submitted by: Robert Shiels WTOL
Submitted by: Robert Shiels WTOL
Sunday, November 15, 2015
You Won't Believe This: 2014-2015 Seasonal Difference
It should go without saying; the late fall/early winter season of 2015 has been easy on us NW Ohioans. Sure, some rain. Strong winds, yeah. But snow? Ice? Bitter cold? Nope, nope, nope.
Hanging on to False Hope
Let's take a walk down memory lane. November 2014 started off cooler than average, but bounced back enough to trick us into preserving hope that all was not lost.
The first week and half went smoothly with highs in the 40s and 50s and lows near the freezing point a handful of times. Nothing out of the ordinary for such a transitional month as November. Before experiencing a change that would define our entire winter season, we hit the warmest high of the month on November 11th. A high of 64° was certainly a treat, but nothing spectacular.
NOVEMBER 2014
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR
================================================================================
1 40 27 34 -13 31 0 T T 0 12.8 24 360 M M 4 1 32 10
2 47 22 35 -12 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.6 13 250 M M 0 8 16 250
3 60 31 46 0 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 10.4 25 240 M M 7 31 250
4 55 44 50 4 15 0 0.08 0.0 0 12.7 26 260 M M 8 1 33 260
5 58 39 49 3 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.2 18 240 M M 0 22 250
6 48 39 44 -1 21 0 0.21 0.0 0 8.0 23 350 M M 8 1 31 340
7 46 33 40 -5 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.0 21 340 M M 5 31 340
8 45 36 41 -4 24 0 T 0.0 0 10.4 22 280 M M 9 29 280
9 45 33 39 -5 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.8 18 230 M M 6 24 210
10 60 42 51 7 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.9 21 190 M M 2 25 180
11 64 38 51 7 14 0 0.04 0.0 0 13.0 25 240 M M 4 1 32 240
12 37 30 34 -9 31 0 0.01 0.0 0 10.9 22 280 M M 9 31 290
13 35 23 29 -14 36 0 T T 0 10.6 20 260 M M 8 18 25 310
14 33 19 26 -16 39 0 T T 0 8.8 16 260 M M 6 1 22 280
15 32 17 25 -17 40 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.5 16 250 M M 3 18 21 250
Mid-November [exactly this time last year] brought major change. On the 16th of the month, 1.7" of snowfall was recorded, plus an additional 0.4" the following day; per the forecast from your First Alert Weather team:
NOVEMBER 2014DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================
16 33 27 30 -11 35 0 0.17 1.7 0 3.5 12 240 M M 10 18 15 230
17 30 13 22 -19 43 0 0.01 0.4 1 13.4 28 260 M M 8 18 36 260
Since Toledo's first snowfall typical arrives in November, this is no shock to the area, but we followed up this minor snow event with highs in the TEENS, 20s and 30s and lows in the single digits.
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR
================================================================================
18 18 9 14 -26 51 0 T T 1 19.6 33 260 M M 3 43 260
19 33 12 23 -17 42 0 0.05 0.5 1 14.5 30 260 M M 8 128 37 270
20 27 16 22 -18 43 0 0.00 0.0 2 15.9 30 250 M M 7 8 37 250
21 26 15 21 -18 44 0 T T 2 5.0 12 180 M M 4 16 250
22 51 18 35 -4 30 0 0.22 0.0 1 8.4 16 220 M M 9 16 24 210
23 58 44 51 13 14 0 0.78 0.0 0 7.8 18 160 M M 9 1 28 160
24 58 35 47 9 18 0 0.24 0.0 0 23.8 40 240 M M 10 13 59 230
25 35 27 31 -6 34 0 T T 0 15.2 33 240 M M 10 8 44 240
26 33 27 30 -7 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.1 9 350 M M 10 12 360
27 33 23 28 -8 37 0 T T 0 9.8 20 290 M M 10 8 28 300
28 30 15 23 -13 42 0 0.01 0.2 T 5.2 14 230 M M 8 18 20 200
29 51 29 40 4 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.0 20 200 M M 6 25 210
30 62 42 52 17 13 0 0.01 0.0 0 13.7 21 220 M M 9 1 33 210
A few 50s managed to sprinkle their way in, but the writing was on the wall.. We were in for a tough winter.
The Season With v. The Season Without
We broke records in 2014. We started the year with 40.1 record breaking inches of snowfall in January and 86.3" that rocked Toledo’s record for a winter snowfall total.
We capped the year with the third least snowiest December on record, but would soon make up for that in troves January and February.
On average, a snowfall of just under 2" is typical for November along with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Neither 2014 or 2015 will fall within those standards
In comparison, November 2015 has been nothing shy of awesome. Yeah, I said it.
The second last month of the year has brought us highs near 80, many dry days and very little wintry-type concerns to rival last year.
The second last month of the year has brought us highs near 80, many dry days and very little wintry-type concerns to rival last year.
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR
================================================================================
1 65 39 52 5 13 0 0.01 0.0 0 12.9 28 250 M M 1 1 36 270
2 70 36 53 6 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 2.8 13 220 M M 0 1 17 220
3 73 39 56 10 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 2.4 8 150 M M 0 1 11 160
4 76 42 59 13 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.0 13 250 M M 1 17 250
5 74 50 62 16 3 0 0.05 0.0 0 5.9 17 210 M M 4 1 24 190
6 65 47 56 11 9 0 0.16 0.0 0 14.3 28 250 M M 8 1 43 250
7 55 34 45 0 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 10.5 28 280 M M 2 8 36 280
8 51 27 39 -6 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 1.5 10 240 M M 0 18 13 240
9 56 27 42 -2 23 0 0.01 0.0 0 2.6 10 90 M M 2 1 13 70
10 48 38 43 -1 22 0 0.19 0.0 0 4.6 12 320 M M 8 1 16 320
11 57 31 44 0 21 0 T 0.0 0 5.8 14 190 M M 0 18 19 140
12 55 45 50 7 15 0 0.03 0.0 0 22.0 40 250 M M 10 1 53 230
13 47 40 44 1 21 0 T 0.0 0 19.5 33 270 M M 10 40 260
14 50 32 41 -1 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.4 18 250 M M 3 23 250
================================================================================
The month started with temperatures climbing through the 60s and 70s to our monthly high (so far) of 76° on the 4th. Our lowest temperatures were barely below the freezing point overnight and still not entirely winter-like on the 10th with a high of 48°.
If we continue on this way, we'll be in great shape for a mild winter.
Check out Chris Vicker's story on El Nino to find out why our season may shape up to be the best in 2-3+ years.
http://www.wtol.com/clip/11999221/winter-weather-outlook-how-el-nino-will-impact-this-season
Check out Chris Vicker's story on El Nino to find out why our season may shape up to be the best in 2-3+ years.
http://www.wtol.com/clip/11999221/winter-weather-outlook-how-el-nino-will-impact-this-season
Wednesday, November 11, 2015
HIGH WIND WARNING THURSDAY
A cold front will move through during the early morning hours - from 2:00 AM to 6:00 AM. You can expect rain showers with winds gusting to 40 mph.
By the noon hour winds will increase. Expect west-southwest winds at 20-30 mph with gusts in excess of 50 mph possible. Travel will be difficult especially on north-south roads.
Strong wind gusts continue through the evening with scattered power outages possible.
Highs will be near normal in the low 50s near the lunch hour.
Winds will simply not let up all day long.
Robert Shiels WTOL
Tuesday, November 10, 2015
ALERT DAY - THURSDAY
The Gales of November - Wednesday night and Thursday
Have you ever noticed that when the weather gets bad it is often preceded by a really nice day? Wednesday will be that day. Mostly sunny and mild with highs near 60 degrees.
A strengthening low pressure area will move into the Great Lakes region by late Wednesday night/early Thursday. Rain showers are likely here with strong and gusty winds overnight.
It will continue to be very windy all day Thursday.
This map shows wind gusts at noon Thursday. A rough lunch hour with gusts over 50mph possible.
These type of wind gusts will be capable of producing minor wind damage including scattered power outages.
Be sure to follow this storm system hour-by-hour with your First Alert Weather App!
-Robert Shiels WTOL
Edmund Fitzgerald ~ Lost 40 Years Ago
Nicknamed the "Toledo Express" the SS Edmund Fitzgerald was the "workhorse" of the Great Lakes, and by many accounts she was Toledo's ship. Many crew members called the Toledo area and northern Ohio home. Often setting and breaking records for hauls on the Great Lakes, the Edmund Fitzgerald was know for hauling taconite iron ore. She was the largest ship on the Great Lakes when launched in 1958.
Reexamination of the
9–10 November 1975 “Edmund
Fitzgerald” Storm Using Today’s
Technology
BY THOMAS R. HULTQUIST, MICHAEL R. DUTTER, AND DAVID J. SCHWAB can be found by clicking HERE.
One of the leading theories states that a group of rogue waves (typically in sets of three) often referred to as "three sisters" may have struck the Fitzgerald. This may have possibly fractured the hull in half as the ship was suspended in between the crest of two waves. The Arthur M. Anderson reported winds of 57 mph (close to the 54 mph simulated analysis). Further wind gust to 86 mph were reported. Waves -- both simulated and reported -- exceeded 25 feet with the Arthur M Anderson recounting a series of rogue waves nearing 35 feet headed in the direction of the Edmund Fitzgerald. Minutes later, just after 7 PM on the 10th of November, the hull of the Edmund Fitzgerald fractured in half. Reaching its final resting place, it laid in two pieces on the bottom of Lake Superior with all 29 crew members lost to sea.
~Meteorologist Chris Vickers
 |
| The Edmund Fitzgerald -- Image by R. LeLievre |
An historic Great Lakes storm of November 9-10 of 1975 sunk the infamous Great Lakes freighter -- which to this day remains the largest vessel lost on the Great Lakes. That evening 29 souls were lost, many of which hailed from the Toledo area. |
| Likely path of the Edmund Fitzgerald and the SS Arthur Andersen |
Initially, the track to the Fitzgerald was protected by the Canadian shoreline of Lake Superior. Late into the evening of November 10th, the winds shifted to a northwest direction which left the Edmund Fitzgerald more exposed to high winds and waves. (Note the approximate location with wind) The result was catastrophic the rapid increase in wind and waves into the afternoon and evening of November 10th, 1975 doomed the Fitzgerald. See the newly reanalyzed wind and waves below to help recapture the historic weather conditions:  |
| Reanalysis of modeled waves valid from 1 pm EST on November 9th, 1975 through 10 pm EST on November 10th, 1975. ~Source: Hultquist, et al |
 |
| Reanalysis of modeled winds and waves valid from 1 pm EST on November 9th, 1975 through 10 pm EST on November 10th, 1975. ~Source Hultquist, et al |
 |
| Modeled Winds at 7 pm EST November 10, 1975. Purple denotes winds near storm force (45+ kt). Hultquist, et al |
 |
| Modeled Waves at 7 pm EST November 10, 1975. Maximum waves of 25+ ft are near where the Fitzgerald was lost. Hultquist, et al |
~Meteorologist Chris Vickers
Sunday, November 8, 2015
Friday, November 6, 2015
High Winds In Michigan
High winds of 40-60 mph barreled across central and northern Michigan between 6-8 AM in advance of a powerful cold front. A narrow band of heavy downpours mixed down higher winds aloft creating widespread minor wind damage.
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| Composite Radar 5 AM |
 |
| Composite Radar 6 AM |
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| Composite Radar 7 AM |
 |
| Storm Reports by 8 AM |
Detailed reports from Detroit NWS Office:
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1037 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2015 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0549 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SAGINAW 43.42N 83.95W 11/06/2015 M58.00 MPH SAGINAW MI ASOS MEASURED AT MBS AIRPORT 0600 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BAY CITY 43.59N 83.89W 11/06/2015 BAY MI LAW ENFORCEMENT CENTRAL DISPATCH RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN. 0610 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 12 NNW BAY PARK 43.81N 83.72W 11/06/2015 M63.00 MPH LHZ422 MI BUOY 0620 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 ESE AU GRES 44.02N 83.54W 11/06/2015 M49.40 MPH LHZ421 MI BUOY 0620 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CARO 43.49N 83.40W 11/06/2015 TUSCOLA MI LAW ENFORCEMENT TUSCOLA COUNTY CENTRAL DISPATCH RECEIVED A HALF DOZEN REPORTS OF TREES AND WIRES BLOW DOWN AROUND THE COUNTY. 0650 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BAD AXE 43.80N 83.00W 11/06/2015 HURON MI TRAINED SPOTTER THERE WERE MULTIPLE REPORTS OF DAMAGE ACROSS BAD AXE. LARGE TREES BROKEN AND UPROOTED. MULTIPLE BUILDINGS HAD ROOF DAMAGE WITH ONE BUILDING LOOSING PART OF ITS ROOF. THERE WAS ALSO A REPORT OF A BILLBOARD BLOWN DOWN. 0650 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG LAPEER 43.05N 83.32W 11/06/2015 LAPEER MI LAW ENFORCEMENT LAPEER COUNTY CENTRAL DISPATCH REPORTED TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN AND AROUND LAPEER AND ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY. THEY ALSO REPORTED NUMEROUS SIGNS AND SOME BILLBOARDS BLOWN DOWN. 0650 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BAD AXE 43.80N 83.00W 11/06/2015 M73.00 MPH HURON MI AWOS MEASURED AT BAD AXE AIRPORT 0715 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SANDUSKY 43.42N 82.83W 11/06/2015 SANILAC MI LAW ENFORCEMENT CENTRAL DISPATCH REPORTS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY. THERE WAS ALSO A REPORT OF A TRAILER FLIPPED OVER. THE MOST WIDESPREAD DAMAGE IS IN AND AROUND APPLEGATE. WIND GUSTS WERE ESTIMATED AROUND 70 MPH. 0720 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 6 SW JEDDO 43.09N 82.67W 11/06/2015 ST. CLAIR MI LAW ENFORCEMENT THERE WAS A REPORT THAT A BARN WAS BLOWN DOWN IN GREENWOOD TOWNSHIP. 0730 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 E PORT SANILAC 43.43N 82.43W 11/06/2015 M69.00 MPH LHZ463 MI SHIP SHIP REPORT OFF THE COAST OF PORT SANILAC. 0730 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE PORT SANILAC 43.42N 82.54W 11/06/2015 M39.00 MPH SANILAC MI C-MAN STATION 0750 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SE ST. CLAIR SHORES 42.47N 82.87W 11/06/2015 M39.00 MPH LCZ460 MI C-MAN STATION
Thursday, November 5, 2015
Hello, is it me you're looking for?
Well, hello, November.
5 days in to the month and we're enjoying some of the warmest weather of the season.
Soon, that's all about to change.
FROM ALL-TIME HIGH TO ALL-TIME LOW
Even though we aren't experiencing record-setting heat, expect the next few days to feel like a sucker punch from Mother Nature. We've been given a true gift of summer-like weather in the depths of fall. I've seen social media posts of people driving with the windows down, kids heading to school in shorts, and Christmas lights going up early because-- Hey, when's the last time you were able to string the lights in 70 degree weather?
That's why this upcoming pattern change is going to be so unsavory.
WHAT ARE WE TRACKING?
Even with a pleasant Thursday-- Highs in the low to mid 70s, dry, partly cloudy-- We're already undergoing some changes that you may not even notice at first. Winds are picking up in intensity. Warm air flux in from the SW is fueling our future rain chances. And clouds are thickening.
That's why this upcoming pattern change is going to be so unsavory.
WHAT ARE WE TRACKING?
Even with a pleasant Thursday-- Highs in the low to mid 70s, dry, partly cloudy-- We're already undergoing some changes that you may not even notice at first. Winds are picking up in intensity. Warm air flux in from the SW is fueling our future rain chances. And clouds are thickening.
In the video, you can see the slow, steady progression of a cold front from the west. As it approaches along a Low pressure system, we'll experience gusty winds, brief rainfall and that drastic temperature change. Watch the clock closely.
6:00pm: Warm, dry
9:00pm: Mild, cloudy
MIDNIGHT: Showers begin
3:00am: Moderate to heavy rain
6:00am: Showers ending, wet roads
9:00am: Cold front approaching, dry, mild
NOON: Dry, much cooler, incredibly windy
Thursday is incredibly warm with highs nearly 20 degrees above average for this time of year. Enjoy it while you can!
On average, November highs should be in the mid 50s with overnight lows in the 40s.
FIERCE FRIDAY
Along with early showers from 2-7am Friday, the day brings incredibly gusty winds. Sustained winds range between 15-25mph while gusts are likely between 30-40mph. This snap shot at 8:00am shows just how blustery things are about to get.
This weekend is much calmer, but quite cool. Highs Saturday and Sunday struggle to get out of the 40s. Bundle up and hold on to your hats-- November has officially arrived.
Sunday, November 1, 2015
November 1, 2015 Sunday Night Weather Hangout
Be watching at 8pm -- show will start. Ask your questions. Some will be answered on the show!
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