Tuesday, February 24, 2015

2015 Spring Outlook

Spring? We aren't so sure winter is ready to give way just yet with more bone chilling temperatures ahead as we turn the calendar into March. But eventually that snow will melt and warmer air will return. We promise.

Below is our spring outlook for the few months ahead. For reminders sake, we predicted a colder than average winter with near to above average snow. Both verified, read here: WINTER OUTLOOK

Temperature: Below average, especially early. 

We can look back to last year to show how likely this forecast is. Anytime there will be a northeast wind, especially early in spring before Lake Erie ice melts, it will be bone chilling. It took until May last spring for temperatures to consistently reach their normal values. That could very well be the case this spring as well. The ice is actually thicker on Lake Erie than last year. 

Precipitation: Near to slightly below normal precipitation.

With an active pattern slated for early March it is likely that old saying will prove true. In like a lion, out like a lamb. While overall rainfall may be below normal, individual heavy rain storms may prove troublesome for local river concerns. See the next section for more details on that. 

Flooding: Significant Flooding Potential.

We use the word 'potential' to describe the spring flood outlook because that is exactly what this winter has built up to. Thick ice on local rivers and deep snow packs are the two main ingredients for dangerous flooding with spring rains just around the corner. Last year ice jams and periods of heavy rain came close to causing major flooding area-wide. This year the potential is just the same. It will take some luck for a slow thaw and dodging of major rain storms the next 1-2 months. Any quick warm-ups or heavy rain storms will need to monitored closely.