Early this week an upper level low pressure will sit over the eastern Great Lakes. Breeding grounds for waterspouts. Take a look at this picture taken back in August when a similiar set-up occured.
There is a difference this time around though. The August low (in red) was right over Lake Erie, this time around (in blue) the low will be further north. On a map that might not look like much, but that few hundred miles is critical.
This perfect set-up for lake effect precipitation but with northwest winds, the highest chance for convection will be between Cleveland and Buffalo.