Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Does a warm March mean a hot summer?

With 70s and even 80s on the 7-day forecast, the question I have been fielding more and more this week: "If it's this warm now, are we in for a hot summer?"

The answer is, how warm it is right now really doesn't tell us anything about how warm or cold we will be months down the road.

For the past 120 years, records have been kept in Toledo and warmer than average months earlier in the year have shown little to no connection to how warm the rest of the year will be. While the science of meteorology is rapidly advancing we still do not have a great understanding for long term forecasting (3-6months+). There are simply too many factors and our computing powers simply aren't fast enough yet for the complex equations to be run.

This winter was a great example of our long range forecasting downfalls as a meteorology community.

 Lets take this a week or two at a time. Enjoy the warmth and sun, mother nature doesn't spoil us too often.